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A powerful tropical wind and rainstorm will unfold and bring days of coastal flooding, erosive surf, high winds, and rain from the Carolinas to New England; Some areas may face impacts similar to a major nor’easter or hurricane.
A powerful tropical wind and rainstorm will unfold and bring days of coastal flooding, erosive surf, high winds, and rain from the Carolinas to New England; Some areas may face impacts similar to a major nor’easter or hurricane.
A slow-moving storm is brewing along the Atlantic coast of the United States that will strengthen and unleash wind, rain, and pounding surf from late this week into early next week. AccuWeather meteorologists warn the tropical wind and rainstorm could evolve into a named tropical storm, but it may be more akin to the powerful nor’easters that ramp up along the coastline during the winter months, without the snow. “This will be a damaging storm for some along the Atlantic coast,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
AccuWeather meteorologists are referring to the system as a tropical wind and rainstorm to raise awareness of the situation and allow those affected to better prepare.
“The storm will form just off the Florida coast late this week and move northward this weekend to next week,” Rayno added. “As the storm drifts to the north, it will grow stronger each day.”
An extended period of stormy conditions is in store with stiffening winds that will raise seas, erosive surf, and coastal flooding, as well as bring much-needed rain to some areas.
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for this storm is 1. In this case, the storm will be the equivalent of a hurricane.
“The risk of major coastal impacts is amplified by the storm occurring toward the end of the ‘king tides,’ a time when tides are already running above their historical averages from an astronomical perspective,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said. “There is a high risk this storm will be designated a subtropical (hybrid) storm, which is why we have designated this system as a tropical wind and rainstorm, and have issued an eye path map to raise early awareness ahead of potential National Hurricane Center (NHC) classification,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
“A fully tropical storm gets its energy solely from the ocean, a subtropical or hybrid storm gets its energy from both the ocean and the jet stream or stalled front–We think this will be a hybrid storm as a result,” DaSilva said.
Should the storm’s intensity escalate and this storm is officially named by the NHC, it would be designated as Lorenzo, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic list.
There is the potential for major coastal flooding from North Carolina to New Jersey and Cape Cod.
These conditions will develop from North Carolina to Delmarva from Friday to Saturday and expand northward over New Jersey and the New York City area on Sunday. Barrier island communities and low-lying areas that take on water during a tropical storm or nor’easter will likely flood with this event.
Tides are expected to range from 1-3 feet above normal with an AccuWeather StormMax™ surge of 6 feet.
Offshore, waves will build to 10-20 feet and could grow even higher.
The slow-moving nature of this storm will cause days of coastal erosion due to heavy surf and strong rip currents. The prolonged storm may severely damage some beaches and protective dunes.
“Along the immediate coast, winds are likely to get strong enough with this from southeastern Virginia to Delmarva, New Jersey and southeastern New York and possibly southern New England to lead to tree, power line, and property damage,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said.
Wind gusts of 40-60 mph will frequent coastal areas from North Carolina to eastern Massachusetts. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust for this storm is 80 mph. A hurricane has winds of 74 mph or greater.
In a worst-case scenario, the storm could evolve to hurricane strength and turn inland over the mid-Atlantic with a zone where a significant storm surge, high winds, and heavy rain occur just to the north of the center.
The heaviest rain, which may lead to urban flooding outside of storm surge problems, will generally be confined to the Interstate 95 corridor on east from North Carolina to Massachusetts. The storm is forecast to bring 2-4 inches of soaking rain in many coastal areas, with higher amounts of 4-8 inches expected in coastal North Carolina. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall is 10 inches.
Rainfall will diminish sharply farther west and south of coastal South Carolina.
Although hurricanes have remained hundreds of miles offshore in recent months, they have still contributed to significant beach damage and erosion.
“There have been probably five significant episodes of heavy surf, beach erosion, and coastal flooding since the summer, starting with Erin in mid-August,” Rayno said. Eastern North Carolina has borne the brunt with multiple beachfront homes crashing into the sea as shoreline erosion intensified in recent weeks.
The upcoming weekend is forecast to be vastly different than last weekend along part of the Atlantic coast. Last weekend’s sunshine and warmth in the mid-Atlantic and New England regions marked one of the most delightful stretches of the year. The upcoming weekend, especially the latter part, is shaping up to be very stormy and could be damaging and dangerous for some due to the risk of flooding and enraged seas.
Elsewhere, in the tropical Atlantic, Jerry is forecast to gain strength and become a hurricane in the coming days. It will take a sharply curved track near the northeastern Caribbean islands and most likely steer to the east of Bermuda.
Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Karen continues to move across the northern Atlantic and is not expected to bring impacts to land.
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AccuWeather’s Geoff Cornish breaks down the weather conditions that are expected to strengthen a coastal storm into a powerful system with destructive coastal flooding from Oct. 10-13.
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Click the link below for the complete article (plus accompanying weather Maps):
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