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The stakes in November’s midterms aren’t merely about who will hold power over the next two years. Some of this year’s elections will also determine who oversees the presidential election in 2028.
The races with perhaps the greatest significance for election security two years from now are contests for governor — and in more than one battleground state, Republicans have nominated candidates who’ve expressed skepticism about, or who have outright denied, the results of the 2020 presidential election.
These states include Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and my home state, Wisconsin.
It would be bad enough for an election-denying Republican to lead one of those states. What’s worse, a G.O.P. victory in one of those governor’s races could create a potential opening for President Trump’s party to subvert the 2028 election.
Democrats are right to feel bullish about their odds in a slew of this year’s congressional races, and to lean into those contests. But to avoid another Jan. 6 scenario, they should devote just as much attention to — and sufficient resources toward — electing Democratic governors.
Perhaps nowhere is this more important than in Wisconsin, where the 2026 Republican cash advantage is extremely worrisome.
In Wisconsin, the Republican nominee for governor is Representative Tom Tiffany. After the 2020 election, Mr. Tiffany was the only member of Wisconsin’s congressional delegation to sign onto a legal brief supporting a lawsuit to overturn the results in Wisconsin and other battleground states. Then he announced that he would vote in Congress against certifying Wisconsin’s Electoral College votes. On Jan. 7, 2021, Joe Biden’s election as president was certified, despite Mr. Tiffany’s votes against certifying the results from both Pennsylvania and Arizona. Perhaps to appeal to concerned voters, he now concedes that Mr. Biden won. But as recently as August, Mr. Tiffany said he didn’t regret those votes.
Mr. Tiffany’s Democratic opponent this year is David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive. According to one analysis, Mr. Tiffany and his allies are outspending Mr. Crowley and his supporters $54.8 million to $21.6 million.
How? Much of the money being spent to elect Mr. Tiffany comes from one multibillionaire couple, Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein. Mr. Uihlein was reportedly among the largest funders of the rally that morphed into the Capitol riot. The Uihleins have given more than $30 million to the Republican Party of Wisconsin this year. By late last month, the party had transferred close to $35 million to Mr. Tiffany’s campaign. And Mr. Uihlein is the main contributor to the Restoration of America PAC, which has reported spending more than $12 million in support of Mr. Tiffany.
Wisconsin’s governor signs the certificate naming the state’s presidential electors, and transmits it to Washington. In theory, a governor could refuse to do so in 2028 — very likely triggering a court battle that could slow the process of determining who becomes our next president. In Wisconsin, the last three presidential elections came down to margins of less than one percentage point, making the state attractive to those fraudulently claiming that chicanery has affected election results.
The Wisconsin governor’s race isn’t the only one Democrats should keep their eyes on.
Arizona is another swing state with a race that features an election-denying Republican candidate for governor, Representative Andy Biggs, who backed the same lawsuit that Mr. Tiffany did. The Democratic governor, Katie Hobbs, is favored against Mr. Biggs, but Democrats should take nothing for granted.
The same is true in Michigan, where Representative John James has called the 2020 election “rigged and manipulated.” And in Pennsylvania, where the state treasurer, Stacy Garrity, has said “we know” that Mr. Trump won in 2020. Neither of them is favored against their Democratic opponents, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson in Michigan, and Gov. Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania.
Then there’s another category in Georgia, where the Republican running for governor and the billionaire funder of his campaign are the same person: Rick Jackson. He has conceded Mr. Biden’s 2020 win, but his stance on that election is more cryptic. In August, CNN reported that in one recording, Mr. Jackson said, “What happened in 2020 is just unconscionable.” In his successful primary campaign against Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger — who famously declined to “find” enough votes to hand Mr. Trump a victory in Georgia — one of Mr. Jackson’s campaign ads tags Mr. Raffensperger as “Brad ‘Judas’ Raffensperger,” presumably a reference to Judas Iscariot.
Mr. Jackson, the founder of Jackson Healthcare, has put more than $100 million of his own money into his race. In September, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that “pro-Jackson groups have spent or reserved nearly $76 million in airtime ahead of the general election.” That is almost 10 times as much as his Democratic opponent, Keisha Lance Bottoms, a former mayor of Atlanta.
If any one of these Republican candidates wins, it’s not hard to imagine election subversion attempts taking place again in that state.
Understandably, Democrats across the country have their sights set on retaking one or both houses of Congress. But we can’t neglect these races for governor, particularly those with election-denying candidates, close polling or huge Republican cash advantages — or, in Wisconsin, all three.
The Constitution puts election administration in the hands of the states. In more than one race this year, voters aren’t just deciding between a Democrat and a Republican. They’re deciding whether their states should be run by people who don’t stand firmly for free and fair elections. For Americans concerned that Mr. Trump and his movement pose a danger to the security and legitimacy of future presidential elections — the sanctity of the vote — the time to stop them is now.
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Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press
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