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CLIMATEWIRE | The sweeping budget bill signed by President Donald Trump will lead to higher electricity bills, fewer renewable installations, and more planet-warming pollution, according to modeling released Friday by the Rhodium Group.
The economic consulting firm’s results are among the bevy of energy models put out in the wake of the law’s passage earlier this month.
Rhodium predicts average household energy expenditures will increase between $78-$192 by 2035, largely due to fewer electric vehicles on the road and consumers paying more for gasoline. Installations of new clean electricity projects, such as wind and solar, are expected to fall 57-62 percent over the next decade. The result is an increase in the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.
When Rhodium estimated America’s emissions trajectory last year, it predicted the U.S. was on track to cut emissions between 38-56 percent by 2035 compared to 2005 levels. Now, it thinks the U.S. is on pace to reduce emissions 27-44 percent below 2005 levels. For context, U.S. emissions were 20 percent below 2005 levels last year. The broad ranges reflect scenarios that assume differences in economic factors, such as the price of natural gas, renewables or electricity demand growth.
“This has a meaningful slowing effect on the deployment of of clean technology across the economy,” said Ben King, a director in Rhodium’s Climate and Energy practice.
Rhodium’s modeling is one of a series of analyses that have come out in the aftermath of the law’s passage.
FTI, a consulting group, reckons new gas plant construction in the Eastern Interconnection will surge as a result of the measure, prompting an 8 percent increase in natural gas demand for power compared to the group’s reference case scenario. The Eastern Interconnection is the power grid covering two-thirds of the country.
FTI also thinks renewable installations will plunge, leading to renewables’ share of total electricity generation to fall in the 2030s. The group’s initial modeling results did not report changes in costs or emissions.
“The accelerated phase out of clean energy tax credits results in slower growth in wind and solar capacity and leads to gas capacity picking up a greater share, with the majority of new gas builds projected to come online in the 2030’s,” Dan Goodwin, a senior director at FTI, wrote in an email.
The Repeat Project, an academic group led by Princeton University professor Jesse Jenkins, echoed many of Rhodium’s findings.
It estimates the law will increase household energy bills by $280 annually through 2035.
Repeat had expected solar installations to average 44 gigawatts annually through 2035, but that figure falls to 23 GW following the law’s passage. Wind falls from 25 GW annually to 9 GW.
As a result of such changes, it expects greenhouse gas emissions will be 7 percent higher in 2035.
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