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Sloppy Use of Machine Learning Is Causing a ‘Reproducibility Crisis’ in Science

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History shows civil wars to be among the messiest, most horrifying of human affairs. So Princeton professor Arvind Narayanan and his Ph.D. student Sayash Kapoor got suspicious last year when they discovered a strand of political science research claiming to predict when a civil war will break out with more than 90 percent accuracy, thanks to artificial intelligence.

A series of papers described astonishing results from using machine learning, the technique beloved by tech giants that underpins modern AI. Applying it to data such as a country’s gross domestic product and unemployment rate was said to beat more conventional statistical methods at predicting the outbreak of civil war by almost 20 percentage points.

Yet when the Princeton researchers looked more closely, many of the results turned out to be a mirage. Machine learning involves feeding an algorithm data from the past that tunes it to operate on future, unseen data. But in several papers, researchers failed to properly separate the pools of data used to train and test their code’s performance, a mistake termed “data leakage” that results in a system being tested with data it has seen before, like a student taking a test after being provided the answers.

“They were claiming near-perfect accuracy, but we found that in each of these cases, there was an error in the machine-learning pipeline,” says Kapoor. When he and Narayanan fixed those errors, in every instance they found that modern AI offered virtually no advantage.

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Photograph: PM Images/Getty Images

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Click the link below for the article:

https://www.wired.com/story/machine-learning-reproducibility-crisis/?utm_source=pocket_discover

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We need to take away children.

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As a therapist for children who are being processed through the American immigration system, Cynthia Quintana has a routine that she repeats each time she meets a new patient in her office in Grand Rapids, Michigan: She calls the parents or closest relatives to let them know the child is safe and well cared for and provides 24-hour contact information.

This process usually plays out within hours of when the children arrive. Most are teens who have memorized or written down their relatives’ phone numbers in notebooks they carried with them across the border. By the time of that initial call, their families are typically worried, waiting anxiously for news after having—in an act of desperation—sent their children into another country alone in pursuit of safety and the hope of a future.

But in the summer of 2017, Quintana encountered a curious case. A 3-year-old Guatemalan boy with a toothy smile and bowl-cut black hair sat down at her desk. He was far too little to have made the journey on his own. He had no phone numbers with him, and when she asked where he was headed or whom he’d been with, the boy stared back blankly. Quintana scoured his file for more information but found nothing. She asked for help from an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer, who came back several days later with something unusual: information indicating that the boy’s father was in federal custody.

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https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/tmt69V51twfuikEBAc4F6uFKdYc=/0x0:1500x1125/680x510/media/files/child-separation/pullquote-5.pngAn investigation by Caitlin Dickerson

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Click the link below for the article:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/09/trump-administration-family-separation-policy-immigration/670604/

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Everything to Know About the WNBA Star in Russian Custody

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As tensions between the U.S. and Russia continue to rise amid the latter’s invasion of Ukraine, an American WNBA star has been detained in Russia for months. Brittney Griner, the two-time Olympic gold medalist who plays for the Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA and for Russia’s UMMC Ekaterinburg during the off-season, was arrested on drug charges in February after Customs found vape cartridges in her luggage at the airport. On Thursday — almost one month after Griner pleaded guilty — a Russian court convicted her of drug smuggling and sentenced her to nine years in a penal colony. Here, everything to know about her case:

Brittney Griner was arrested in Russia in February and is currently on trial for drug charges.

Russia first announced Griner’s detention on March 6, telling the world it had an American basketball player in custody. The player was later identified as Griner, and footage allegedly showing her stop at Customs was released. According to the New York Times, Russian law enforcement claimed Griner had been found with vape cartridges containing hashish oil and opened a criminal case against her on drug-smuggling charges, which carry a jail sentence of up to ten years in a penal colony.

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Click the link below for the article:

https://www.thecut.com/2022/08/russia-arrests-wnba-star-brittney-griner-on-drug-charges.html

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Missed News 960

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Serena Williams’ blunt retirement essay is a warning sign to all women: You’ll never have it all Help America talk again | Celeste Headlee
Britney Spears’ ex Jason Alexander convicted in wedding trespass case Is social media bad for diplomacy? | Rebecca Adler-Nissen
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The Baseball Stadium That “Forever Changed” Professional Sports

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Baseball stadiums are never only about baseball. Their utility is both more dynamic and more poetic; as writer and critic Paul Goldberger put it in Ballpark: Baseball in the American City, baseball stadiums are the “ultimate American metaphor.” The metaphor works on at least two levels. As spiritually public places containing “a garden” at their heart, ballparks evoke a tension between “the rural and the urban”—the Jeffersonian preference for the pastoral; the Hamiltonian impulse toward the industrial—that has “existed throughout American history.” Done right, they evince what beauty that tension can produce, the creative potential of this American conflict. But so, too, do baseball stadiums—through design quirks, topographical accommodations, structural evocations of local history—represent characteristics particular to the cities and time periods in which they were constructed. They’re expressions, in this way, about nothing less than how we live.

It’s perhaps by virtue of this fact that baseball stadiums also inspire in fans a unique and very personal kind of devotion and pride. We love our stadiums. Fans whose teams play in stadiums that are iconic—Fenway Park, Wrigley Field, Dodger Stadium—tend to regard them with an almost religious sort of reverence. Fans whose teams play in stadiums that are not yet so historic, meanwhile, often treat the prospect that they one day might as a reason for hope. This is why all new parks, when they finally open to fans, receive heraldic welcomes. Now this, we say, as we trundle wide-eyed through the pristine silver turnstiles for the first time, is the beginning of something new.

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https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GRI8mvvP96digGrOVGesNtdhpjw=/0x0:1200x649/1820x1024/filters:focal(504x229:696x421):format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71207152/camdenyards_ringerillustration.0.jpeg

Ringer illustration

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Click the link below for the article:

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2022/8/4/23288546/camden-yards-30th-anniversary-baltimore-influence

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Can anyone catch the New York Yankees? Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams

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Coming out of the All-Star break, a few teams have all but secured a trip to October, others are in the thick of the playoff hunt and some already have their eyes set on next season.

Will the Yankees reach 116 wins this season? Can the Braves keep building on their momentum to take control of the NL East away from the Mets? Will the Nationals suffer their worst season in franchise history and also lose their star player?

Who will dominate in the home stretch? And what does your team have to play for?

We’ve broken down all 30 squads into six tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jeff Passan, and David Schoenfield to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and playoff odds for all 30 teams.

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ESPN

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Click the link below for the article:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34272091/can-anyone-catch-yankees-second-half-preview-rankings-playoff-odds-all-30-teams?utm_source=pocket_discover

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Missed News 959

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Your Daily AM Roundup Fox News host Brian Kilmeade called out for showing a photoshopped image of a judge in the Mar-a-Lago raid
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The Great (Fake) Child-Sex-Trafficking Epidemic

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A poster in the window of Cahoots Corner Cafe—great potatoes, good coffee—advertised a family event at the Oakdale, California, rodeo grounds. There would be food trucks, carnival games, live music, a raffle, and the opportunity to support the cause of “freeing child sex slaves.

”The event, called the Festival of Hope, was a fundraiser for the anti-child-sex-trafficking group Operation Underground Railroad, which was founded in Utah in 2013 and has achieved immense popularity on social media in the past year and a half, attracting an outsize share of attention during a new wave of concern about imperiled children. It is beloved by parenting groups on Facebook, lifestyle influencers on Instagram, and fitness guys on YouTube, who are impressed by its muscular approach to rescuing the innocent. (The nonprofit group is known for taking part in overseas sting operations in which it ensnares alleged child sex traffickers; it also operates a CrossFit gym in Utah.) Supporters commit to “shine OUR light”—the middle word a reference to the group’s acronym—and to “break the chain,” which refers to human bondage and to cycles of exploitation.

Oakdale, a small city near Modesto, is set among ever-dwindling cattle ranches and ever-expanding almond farms. By 9:30 a.m. on a Saturday in late summer, more than 100 booths lined the perimeter of the rodeo arena. Vendors sold crepes and jerky and quilts and princess makeovers and Cutco knives. (They paid a fee to participate, a portion of which went to OUR, as did the proceeds from raffle tickets.) Miniature horses with purple dye on their tails were said to be unicorns. A man with a guitar played “Free Fallin’ ” and then a twangier song referring to alcohol as “heartache medication,” which was notable only because it was so incongruously depressing; everyone else was enjoying a beautiful day in the Central Valley. The air was filled with the perfect scent of hot dogs and with much less wildfire smoke than there had been the day before.

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https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/-NJfy3drCYpXKJ6jfCIKBnpLRr0=/0x0:1600x2000/592x740/media/img/2021/12/06/WEL_Tiffany_ChildTraffickingOpener/original.jpgIllustration by Vanessa Saba. Sources: Des Moines Register / USA Today Network; Ghislain and Marie David de Lossy / Getty; Peter Baker / Getty

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Click the link below for the article:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/01/children-sex-trafficking-conspiracy-epidemic/620845/?utm_source=pocket_collection_story

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How to Answer “Why Do You Want to Work Here?”

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Sometimes the toughest job interview questions are also the simplest and most direct. One you should always expect to hear and definitely prepare for:

“Why do you want to work here?”

Like a similarly problematic interview question — “Tell me about yourself” — “Why do you want to work here?” requires you to focus on a specific answer without any clues, contexts, or prompting from the interviewer. It’s a blank space — but that doesn’t mean you can wing it and fill it with just anything.

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Svetlana Sultanaeva/Getty Images

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Click the link below for the article:

https://hbr.org/2022/08/how-to-answer-why-do-you-want-to-work-here?utm_source=pocket_discover

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Missed News 958

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Dems pass major health, climate, tax bill along party lines; Biden signing next week The not-so-helpful help for those experiencing homelessness | Grant Denton
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Coronavirus Daily Briefing Senior athletes have found the secret–and so can you! | Kyle Case
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