James' World 2

Hmmmm … Thanks to the idiotic Trump Administration, we are about to enter another nuclear arms race!

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When President Dwight D. Eisenhower went to the United Nations in 1953 to offer countries nuclear technology and know-how in return for a promise to use them peacefully, the policy went by a memorable shorthand, “Atoms for Peace.” Seven decades later, it could go by a less idealistic name: nuclear hedging.

President Trump’s civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, announced this week, reflects a volatile world in which America’s allies are seeking nuclear capabilities to hedge against predatory neighbors, harmful energy disruptions and the shrinking security umbrella of the United States. It also reflects a White House, hungry for lucrative deals for American companies, that is willing to loosen nonproliferation standards for a favored partner in a dangerous region.

Saudi Arabia’s deal could eventually allow it to enrich fuel for nuclear reactors and limit the sites that international inspectors could visit to ensure its peaceful intent. Both of those concessions, unheard-of in recent American civil nuclear agreements, will feed fears that the Saudis could pivot to a nuclear weapons program.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto Saudi leader, has made no secret of that possibility. If Iran obtains a nuclear bomb, he has warned, the Saudis will follow suit.

Mr. Trump sought to allay such concerns on Thursday, declaring that the agreement was limited to civil uses of nuclear technology. But given the checkered history of such deals, and the lack of specifics about this one, his comments were unlikely to quell concerns about a new global arms race.

“We’re back in an era of nuclear hedging,” said Vipin Narang, a professor of nuclear security and political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “You’ve got a lot of nervous countries facing a deteriorating security situation who are unsure they can rely on their formal or informal protectors.”

“We’re going to see a cascade of states looking for the capacity to pursue a military program” that could yield a weapon, said Professor Narang, who worked on nuclear policy in the Pentagon during the Biden administration.

Gary Samore, a professor of politics at Brandeis University who advised on arms control negotiations in the Obama and Clinton administrations, said those countries were sometimes referred to as “friendly proliferators.”

Not all, or even any, of them will ultimately pursue a bomb, the experts said. The last country to enter the club of nuclear-armed states was North Korea in 2006. But it does suggest a risky new period, in which the global nuclear market could become more freewheeling and less rulebound. Nuclear buyers, rattled by the shift in the global posture of the United States, are likely to make greater demands, while rival sellers, like Russia and China, could seize on the Saudi precedent to grant them.

“It’s very connected to the damage Trump has done to credibility of the U.S. as a guarantor of security,” Mr. Samore said.

In countries such as Germany and Poland, South Korea and Japan, governments without nuclear weapons are debating the need to pursue them. South Korea, menaced by the nuclear-armed North, has initiated a plan to develop a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, with the support of the United States.

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A French nuclear submarine. France has expanded its nuclear deterrence to cover some allies as the United States has pulled back on European security. Credit…Pool photo by Yoan Valat

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