James' World 2

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Here’s what you need to know:

• Oil prices rise sharply, breaking relative period of calm.
• A tentative recovery in shipping appears at risk.
• Stock markets turn lower.

Oil prices rise sharply, breaking relative period of calm.

• Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, rose more than 5 percent, to above $78 a barrel, its highest level in over two weeks. Although down significantly from its peak during the worst of the fighting, the recent jump pushed oil back above its prewar price of around $72 a barrel, where it had hovered for several days.

• West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, also jumped, to more than $74 a barrel. This grade of crude traded at $67 per barrel before the war.

• Gasoline prices don’t move in lock step with crude. The U.S. national average price of gas was $3.80 a gallon on Wednesday, according to the AAA motor club. That price at the pump remains more than 27 percent higher than it was at the eve of the war in late February, amid signs that gas stations are maintaining wider profit margins amid the volatility.

A tentative recovery in shipping appears at risk.

• The attacks this week on three commercial vessels, including a Saudi oil tanker and a Qatari liquefied natural gas carrier in the waters off the coast of Oman, threatened to throttle the flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, which had recovered somewhat as shipowners gained more confidence in sending vessels through the contested waterway. Tehran has not claimed responsibility for the attacks.

• On Monday, 36 ships passed through the strait in both directions, according to Kpler, a maritime data company. Before the war, more than 100 ships a day routinely passed through the choke point between Iran and Oman.

• Only three of the ships that transited on Monday took the Omani route, through which the U.S. Navy is providing guidance. Iran insists that vessels pass close to its coast, which some analysts see as a precursor to Tehran charging ships for passage. The middle of the strait is considered dangerous because of the risk of mines laid by Iran’s military.

Stock markets turn lower.

• Stock market investors have generally seemed more focused on the prospects for technology companies and the build-out of artificial intelligence systems than the effects of the war in Iran. But the latest burst of fighting in the gulf appeared to rattle investors.

• Futures for the S&P 500 fell by 1 percent, suggesting that stocks will slip when markets open in New York. The war-related anxiety comes as shares of major tech companies were recently been hit by fears that enormous investments in A.I. systems may not pay off as handsomely as expected, with semiconductor companies coming under pressure in recent trading sessions.

• Stocks in Europe and Asia also fell on Wednesday, with declines accelerating as the fighting in the gulf escalated.

• Still, many market strategists remain bullish. “The A.I. theme is intact, and strong earnings are on the way,” Louis Navellier, a longtime money manager, wrote in a research note. “The Iran situation still casts a shadow, with the chance for sudden high escalation still not out of the question,” he added, but an eventual resolution would be “a strong catalyst for a meaningful relief rally.”

More on the Fighting in the Middle East

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• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s Delayed Funeral: Khamenei’s remains were preserved for months, according to Iran’s government. Some Islamic scholars say it was a political and security calculation. Critics of his brutal rule have been angered by the scale of the commemorations being held to honor his life.

• Possible Plot Against Iran’s Negotiators: U.S. officials believed that Israel might have been plotting to kill Iran’s top negotiators while Washington was engaged with Tehran in delicate talks this spring to reach an interim peace deal, according to current and former American officials.

• Clash Between Trump and the Saudi Crown Prince: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pressed President Trump earlier to cripple Iran. But as Iran asserted its power, the prince urged a cease-fire, and is now pursuing his security priorities.

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