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Russian President Vladimir Putin said Ukraine was in no hurry for peace, and if it did not want to resolve their conflict peacefully, Moscow would accomplish all its goals by force.

Putin’s remarks on Saturday, carried by state news agency TASS, followed a vast Russian drone and missile attack that prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to say Russia was demonstrating its wish to continue the war while Kyiv wanted peace.

Zelenskiy is to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Florida on Sunday to seek a resolution to the war Putin launched nearly four years ago with a full-scale invasion of Russia’s smaller neighbour.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Putin’s remarks.

Russian commanders told Putin during an inspection visit that Moscow’s forces had captured the towns of Myrnohrad, Rodynske and Artemivka in Ukraine’s eastern region of Donetsk, as well as Huliaipole and Stepnohirsk in the Zaporizhzhia region, the Kremlin said on the Telegram messaging app.

Ukraine’s military rejected Russia’s assertions about Huliaipole and Myrnohrad as false statements. The situation in both places remains “difficult”, but “defensive operations” by Ukrainian troops are ongoing, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said in a statement on social media.

The Southern Command of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said on Telegram that “fierce fighting” continued in Huliaipole. “However, a substantial part of Huliaipole continues to be held by the Defence Forces of Ukraine.”

Verifying battlefield claims is difficult as access on both sides is restricted, information is tightly controlled, and front lines shift quickly, with media relying on satellite and geolocated footage that can be partial or delayed.

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If there is a refrain heard across war-shattered Syria, where even the gray-green wilting trees look shellshocked, it is, “We just want to live.”

If there is an ambition in Saudi Arabia, it is to become a major power representing a modern Islam, open and technologically advanced, far from any aggressive Pan-Arab ideology.

If there is a buzzword among the Sunni Gulf monarchies, once driven to paroxysms of fear and rage by the Shiite mullahs of Iran, it is “pragmatism.”

Still, the region remains combustible. The United States responded to the killing of two U.S. soldiers and an American interpreter this month by hitting the Islamic State in Syria with punishing airstrikes that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called “a declaration of vengeance.”

The strikes came soon after the Trump administration said in its National Security Strategy that the region was “emerging as a place of partnership, friendship and investment,” adding that the days when “the Middle East dominated American foreign policy” were “thankfully over.”

Such optimism, based in large part on the Gaza peace agreement signed in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, on Oct. 13, looks overblown, much like President Trump’s claim that day that it took 3,000 years to reach a breakthrough of this kind.

Not everything has been solved overnight by a presidential signature.

In Syria, sectarianism competes with a desire for unity, and violence flares. War festers in Yemen. In Iran, the regime is weak, but its determination to destroy the state of Israel is undimmed. Israeli settlers claw land away from Palestinians in the West Bank, backed by an extreme right-wing Israeli government.

Already, the Gaza accord looks frayed. Israel and Hamas skirmish for advantage. Everything about the peace plan’s next phase — the planned international stabilization force, disarming Hamas, an Israeli withdrawal, and the role of the Palestinian Authority — appears contentious.

Sequencing, or what concessions from which side come first, is the new battleground.

Even so, very few want a return to war. During repeated visits over several months across the region, hope alternated with horror. What was perhaps most striking was a quiet resolve among many people to side with promise over despair and destruction.

“The Gaza war violated the basic Israeli principle of fighting short wars,” said Gershom Gorenberg, an Israeli author and historian. “There is complete exhaustion in Israel; the military is exhausted, and there’s been entirely too much reserve duty. These factors weigh against renewed fighting.”

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David Guttenfelder/The New York Times

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Weight-loss pills that harness the same mechanism as the wildly popular drugs Wegovy and Ozempic are coming to the U.S.

On Monday, Novo Nordisk announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved its oral glucagonlike peptide 1 (GLP-1) medication for weight loss and obesity in adults.

It’s a milestone for the industry, which has struggled to make effective pill versions of the weight-loss injections for years. Most people are more comfortable taking a pill than regularly injecting themselves, says Daniel Drucker, an endocrinologist at the University of Toronto, who previously consulted for Novo Nordisk. “It’s just good to have more options for people,” he says. At the same time, the pills could greatly improve access to the medication by lowering costs—the injections can cost hundreds of dollars per month out of pocket.

“Pills are also easier to transport and produce,” says Rozalina McCoy, an endocrinologist and internist at the University of Maryland, adding that she hopes the new FDA approval will increase access to the drugs.

Prior to that approval, Novo Nordisk, which also makes the injectable semaglutide drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, had seen promising results from its trials of the weight-loss pill, which will also be sold under the brand name Wegovy. In the company’s latest phase 3 clinical trial, the highest dose of the pill resulted in a 16.6 percent weight loss at 64 weeks compared with a 2.7 percent loss among those who took a placebo. For comparison, trials of 2.4 milligrams of Wegovy injections showed up to 17.4 percent weight reduction. (The injection and pill were not compared in a head-to-head trial.)

GLP-1 drugs have transformed the weight-loss industry and revolutionized the treatment of metabolic disease. But until now, they have largely been available in the U.S. only as injections. Novo Nordisk’s pill for type 2 diabetes, Rybelsus, was approved by the FDA in 2019. But oral versions of these drugs haven’t taken off in the same way as the injectables, despite even early data showing weight loss and health benefits to be relatively comparable.

The Wegovy pill, taken once a day, works similarly to the weekly injections—mimicking the activity of a gut hormone that slows down the speed at which people’s stomach empties and that makes them feel fuller. People who take the pills tend to eat less overall. The side effects are pretty similar to those of injections of the drug, and they can include nausea, diarrhea and vomiting.

The pills must also be taken on an empty stomach to work effectively.

“Nothing else can be taken by mouth for at least 30 minutes to allow the medication to be absorbed into the bloodstream,” says John Buse, an endocrinologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, who is a consultant and investigator for Novo Nordisk. “If patients take the medication with other medications, food or even more water or coffee, the effectiveness is dramatically reduced.”

The pill will be available in U.S. pharmacies and select telehealth providers in early January, a Novo Nordisk spokesperson told Scientific American. The starting dose of 1.5 mg is anticipated to cost $149 per month out of pocket but could be lower, depending on a person’s insurance.

Importantly, Novo Nordisk’s latest clinical trial success was based on the maximum daily dose of 25 mg, McCoy says. Unlike the injectables, which enter the bloodstream directly, the pills are broken down in the stomach, which means “the oral doses have to be much, much higher” than the Wegovy injections, which cap at 2.4 mg, McCoy explains.

“I expect that the effective doses of oral Wegovy will be much more expensive than the advertised $149, unfortunately. But I would love to see this medication be more affordable,” she says.

A spokesperson for Novo Nordisk told Scientific American that prices for higher doses will be shared in the new year. “We believe this is the most affordable self-pay price to date for a GLP-1 for weight loss,” the spokesperson said.

Other companies are working on their own weight-loss pills: Eli Lilly, which makes Zepbound, is developing a GLP-1 pill, orforglipron, for weight loss and type 2 diabetes, with FDA approval anticipated for March 2026. More pill options—combined with other effective versions of these drugs in the pipeline—will open up the market and hopefully drive prices down, Drucker says.

“I think we’re going to go in the next like 12 to 18 months from these two main [injection] options from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to half a dozen options in this class of medicines,” Drucker says. “That’s only going to be good for people. They’ll have more choice.”

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On December 3, Alvin Ailey American Dance Theater opened its 2025–26 holiday season at New York City Center with a gala that marked a turning point for the company. The five-week engagement—running through January 4—signals the first full season under Artistic Director Alicia Graf Mack, and a moment where the heralded repertory leans into what audiences expect from Ailey, while expanding its vision for the next generation.

Graf Mack, the 46-year-old mother of two, stepped into her current position with a certain level of familiarity. She danced with the company for years, an experience that informed her approach as an artistic director. In respecting her predecessors, she feels that this endeavor is a responsibility, not simply her duty.

“I am fully aware of what this role carries,” she says. “I worked under Judith Jamison, who was my idol from the time I was little. I saw how she led. I also worked under Robert Battle and saw how he did things. I don’t take any of that lightly. But in order to do the work that needs to be done, I can’t stay frozen in the magnitude of it. I have to stay grounded. I have to be guided by what I know good dance to be, and how to create an environment where dancers can thrive.”

Among the season’s highlights is “Revelations,” which was performed with live music for six shows during opening weekend and the gala. The season also features Jamison’s “A Case of You” in a new production, alongside company premieres and five world premieres by choreographers Maija García, Fredrick Earl Mosley, Matthew Neenan, Jamar Roberts, and Jawole Willa Jo Zollar in collaboration with Samantha Figgins and Chalvar Monteiro.

Alongside Matthew Rushing, Graf Mack was able to program this season with a bit more leeway than in previous years, something that really intrigued her. “I’m interested in what audiences can feel when dancers are given time,” she says. “We had an extended rehearsal period this year, which isn’t always possible for Ailey. Being in the studio with the dancers—teaching, coaching, watching how they move together—that matters. I think people will notice a shift in energy. It feels fresh in the room.”

Ironically, Graf Mack’s path to leadership was an unlikely one. She grew up knowing she wanted to dance, but running an institution? That was another story. When performing full-time became unsustainable, she turned toward education, earning a master’s degree in nonprofit management and teaching at several universities before landing at Juilliard, where she eventually became dean and director of dance.

“That’s where I really learned what [this job] requires,” she says. “It’s not a title. It’s how you show up every day. How you listen. How you lift people. How you manage the artistic alongside the administrative. Dance companies today need leaders who understand both. You can’t separate creative vision from fundraising, from marketing, from long-term sustainability. They all feed each other.”

As Artistic Director of Ailey, Graf Mack remains interested in how the company can expand its reach without losing its identity. Technology, partnerships, and new platforms are part of that conversation, but always in service of the work. “Alvin Ailey leaned into humanity,” she says. “That’s the through line. The world has changed since his time. The way we reach people has changed. But the responsibility stays the same. We’re here to move people. To tell stories others can’t tell. To be brave.”

During my interview with Alicia, the most moving moments were when she reflected on her relationship with the late Judith Jaminson—her predecessor, and her north star. As a young girl, Graf Mack had Jamison’s image on her wall and later worked under her guidance. Their connection deepened over time, shifting from director to mentor, confidant, and friend.

“She studied everything,” she says of Jamison. “How you speak. How you carry yourself. How you prepare a room. She was meticulous and warm and funny and stylish. She didn’t rush anything. After she retired, she stayed present in my life. She checked in. She showed up. She believed in me.” Graf Mack now occupies Jamison’s former office. Much of the furniture remains, and so does the feeling. “I sit at Mr. Ailey’s desk,” she explains. “That wasn’t negotiable. I’m aware of where I am every day. I don’t feel pressure. I feel gratitude.”

The years of practice, education, and previous roles within Graf Mack’s career culminated with the opening night gala, which took place earlier this month. The evening honored board chair Daria L. Wallach, featured performances from Samara Joy and violinist Melissa White, along with boasting a guest list that included notable figures such as Jasmine Guy, Phylicia Rashad, Lorraine Toussaint, and Sunny Hostin, among others. As glamorous a position as the Artistic Director of the Alvin Ailey American Dance Theater may be, for Graf Mack, the goal remains simple.

“I want people to leave the theater feeling lighter,” she explains. “Ailey has always done that. You come in carrying whatever the day gave you. You leave feeling like you can face it. That’s the work.”

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Photo Credit: Chad Salvador

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It has been a gruesome year for those who see Donald Trump’s kakistocracy clearly. He returned to office newly emboldened, surrounded by obsequious tech barons, seemingly in command of not just the country but also the zeitgeist. Since then, it’s been a parade of nightmares — armed men in balaclavas on the streets, migrants sent to a torture prison in El Salvador, corruption on a scale undreamed of by even the gaudiest third-world dictators and the shocking capitulation by many leaders in business, law, media and academia. Trying to wrap one’s mind around the scale of civic destruction wrought in just 11 months stretches the limits of the imagination, like conceptualizing light-years or black holes.

And yet, as 2025 limps toward its end, there are reasons to be hopeful.

That’s because of millions of people throughout the country who have refused to surrender to this administration’s bullying. When Trump began his second term, conventional wisdom held that the resistance was moribund. If that was ever true, it’s certainly not anymore. This year has seen some of the largest street protests in American history. Amanda Litman, a founder of Run for Something, a group that trains young progressives to seek local office, told me that since the 2024 election, it has seen more sign-ups than in all of Trump’s first four years. Just this month, the Republican-dominated legislature in Indiana, urged on by voters, rebelled against MAGA efforts to intimidate them and refused to redraw their congressional maps to eliminate Democratic-leaning districts.

While Trump “has been able to do extraordinary damage that will have generational effects, he has not successfully consolidated power,” said Leah Greenberg, a founder of the resistance group Indivisible. “That has been staved off, and it has been staved off not, frankly, due to the efforts of pretty much anyone in elite institutions or political leadership but due to the efforts of regular people declining to go along with fascism.”

In retrospect, it’s possible to see several pivot points. One of the first was a Wisconsin Supreme Court race in April. Elon Musk, then still running rampant at the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, declared the contest critical and poured more than $20 million into the race. Voters turned out in droves, and the Musk-backed conservative candidate lost by more than 10 points. Humiliated, Musk began to withdraw from electoral politics, at one point breaking with Trump. The tight bond between the world’s richest man and the most powerful one was eroded.

In June, Trump’s military parade, meant as a display of dominance, was a flop, and simultaneous No Kings protests all over the country were huge and energetic. A few months later, Charlie Kirk was assassinated, a tragedy that the administration sought to exploit to silence its opponents. When the late-night comedian Jimmy Kimmel made a distasteful comment on ABC that seemed to blame the right for Kirk’s killing, Disney, the network’s parent company, gave in to pressure to take Kimmel off the air. It was a perilous moment for free speech; suddenly, America was becoming the kind of country in which regime critics are forced off television. But then came a wave of cancellations of Disney+ and the Disney-owned Hulu service, as well as a celebrity boycott, and Disney gave Kimmel his show back.

Trump has thoroughly corrupted the Justice Department, but its selective prosecutions of his foes have been thwarted by judges and, more strikingly, by grand juries. Two grand juries refused to indict Letitia James, New York’s attorney general, whom the administration has accused of mortgage fraud, with no credible evidence. After Sean Dunn, a Justice Department paralegal, tossed a sandwich at a Customs and Border Protection officer during a protest in Washington, the administration sent a team of agents in riot gear to arrest him. But grand jurors refused to indict him on a felony charge. Dunn was eventually charged with a misdemeanor, only to be acquitted by a jury. Jeanine Pirro, the former Fox News personality whom Trump made U.S. attorney in Washington, tried three times to secure a federal indictment for assault against a protester who struggled while being pushed against a wall by an immigration agent. Three times, grand juries refused.

Granted, all these grand juries were in liberal jurisdictions, but their rejections of prosecutors’ claims are still striking, since indictments are usually notoriously easy to secure. “I think you’re seeing reinvigorated grand jury processes,” said Ian Bassin, a founder of the legal and advocacy group Protect Democracy. “Nobody actually knows what’s going on in those grand juries, but the outcome of them seems to suggest that people are actually holding the government’s feet to the fire and being unwilling to simply be a rubber stamp.”

Trump ends the year weak and unpopular, his coalition dispirited and riven by infighting. Democrats dominated in the November elections. During Joe Biden’s administration, far-right victories in school board races were an early indication of the cultural backlash that would carry Trump to office. Now, however, Democrats are flipping school board seats nationwide.

Much of the credit for the reinvigoration of the resistance belongs to Trump himself. Had he focused his deportation campaign on criminals or refrained from injuring the economy with haphazard tariffs while mocking concerns about affordability, he would probably have remained a more formidable figure. He’s still a supremely dangerous one, especially as he comes to feel increasingly cornered and aggrieved. After all, by the time you read this, we could well be at war with Venezuela, though no one in the administration has bothered to articulate a plausible rationale for the escalating conflict.But it’s become, over the past year, easier to imagine the moment when his mystique finally evaporates, when few want to defend him anymore or admit that they ever did. “I think it’s going to be a rocky period, but I no longer think that Trump is going to pull an Orban and fundamentally consolidate authoritarian control of this country the way that it looked like he was going to do in March or April,” said Bassin, referring to Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary. If Bassin is right, it will be because a critical mass of Americans refused to be either cowed or complicit.

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Jonno Rattman for The New York Times

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A languid spiral galaxy appears draped against deep space in a stunning new image from the European Space Agency’s Euclid telescope.

Euclid launched in 2023 on a six-year mission to map the cosmos at scale, observing billions of galaxies stretching as far away as 10 billion light-years from Earth. The effort could reveal how galaxies form and evolve and how the universe has expanded over its 13.8-billion-or-so-year history.

In turn, astronomers hope Euclid will shed light on dark matter, which we know tugs at normal matter but is utterly invisible to us, and dark energy, the force that is responsible for accelerating the speed at which the universe expands.

That effort will begin in earnest next year, when Euclid releases its first formal batch of data, which will account for about 14 percent of its final survey area.

Until then, the Euclid team has offered the occasional teaser for the telescope’s power, including a festive new image of the galaxy NGC 646. This elegant spiral galaxy, filled with stars, is about 392 million light-years away from Earth—some 4 percent of the distance of Euclid’s farthest targets—and is retreating at more than 5,000 miles per second.

Appearing at the left tip of NGC 646 is a second galaxy, known as PGC 6014—but their apparent closeness is merely an optical illusion; in truth, PGC 6014 is nearly 45 million light-years closer to Earth.

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ESA/Euclid/Euclid Consortium/NASA, image processing: Euclid Science Ground Segment and M. Schirmer (MPIA) (CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO)

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If the rule stands that you shouldn’t discuss money at the dinner table, then there will likely be some awkward conversations happening over the next couple of decades.In the next 25 years, an intergenerational wealth transfer of $74 trillion is expected, according to a June report by UBS. Among the ultrawealthy, this transfer is accelerating: By 2040, the world’s billionaires are expected to pass down $5.9 trillion to their children, UBS estimated in a December report, which focused on billionaires.

That amounts to the greatest wealth transfer in history — and plenty of familial expectations.

The billionaires surveyed by UBS have high aspirations for their children: 82% hope their kids “develop the skills and values to succeed independently,” and 61% hope their children are “happy/comfortable with managing the family’s wealth.”

Richard Orlando, the founder of Legacy Capitals, a consulting and advisory firm for wealthy families and family offices, aims to help that transfer, and the expectations that come with it, go as smoothly as possible. He works with clients to educate them and cement plans around succession, investing, giving, and — the big one — inheritance.

While more money can mean more complex problems — Legacy Capitals families are worth between $20 million and $3.5 billion — everyone can learn from a thoughtful approach to these topics, he said.

“Any family who’s more intentional about transferring values, educating, and preparing the next generation for stewardship, whether that’s $2 million going to the kids or $200 million,” sees better results, he told Business Insider.

He broke down three common mistakes families make when dealing with inheritance — and how to correct them.

1. Silence is not the solution

Many wealthy parents shy away from discussing money with their children, fearing it may lead to entitlement.

The problem with that, Orlando said, is that it can leave a child totally unprepared until “someone dies and the estate plan speaks,” Orlando said. “It’s almost like a lottery winner.”

There are ways to be more open without showing your kids your bank statement or breaking down every asset.

“Move toward transparency” gradually, Orlando suggested, adding that families shouldn’t expect to flip a switch overnight.

One of Orlando’s clients planned to leave each of their children $100 million, he said. Up until then, their kids had largely been supporting themselves, with no idea they would soon have nine-figure fortunes.

Orlando convinced the parents to put $5 million into wealth management accounts in each of the children’s names to prevent a shock to the system.

“Let’s get them to start developing skills,” he said. “If you want your children to be responsible for $100 million, don’t stay silent.”

2. There is no plan

A large part of Orlando’s work revolves around creating policies for families around everything from communication to investing.

If a family owns a business, there should be a conversation about who will take over control and ownership of it. If there is a foundation, there should be a conversation about its goals.

For example, say a grandparent is conservative and a grandchild wants to give all their money to Planned Parenthood. There will likely be a disagreement. Orlando’s suggestion: Find common ground, agree on a few key causes, and incorporate those into a philanthropy mission statement.

Guidelines help prevent future conflict, he said.

3. If you want to produce leaders, stop controlling them

According to the UBS survey, 43% of billionaires hope their children “grow the family’s business, brand, or assets, ensuring the family legacy continues.”

But that expectation can lead to conflict.

The solution is for the leader not to micromanage, but to gradually hand over the reins through projects that are low-risk and allow the children to voice their opinions.

“That way we can go from a voice to a vote,” Orlando said. “There are these progressions.”

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More money, more problems? High-net-worth families are planning for the Great Wealth Transfer. Constantine Johnny/Getty Images

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Congress designated the center as a “living memorial” to President John F. Kennedy in 1964. Relatives of the slain 35th president opposed the change in posts on social media.

Mr. Redd said seven musicians were scheduled to perform on Wednesday. The concert had been held at the Kennedy Center for 20 years and was previously hosted by the jazz bassist Keter Betts, who died in 2005. Mr. Redd took over in 2006.

The Kennedy Center did not immediately respond to a request for comment after business hours. It was unclear whether ticket holders for the jazz concert would receive refunds.

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An annual Christmas Eve jazz concert was canceled by its host after President Trump’s name was added to the Kennedy Center building.Credit…Eric Lee for The New York Times

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If New York City sees more than 4 inches of snow, it will be the most significant accumulation since January 2022, when more than 8 inches fell in Central Park.

The storm is expected to make getting into and out of the city even more complicated during one of the busiest travel weeks of the year. Gov. Kathy Hochul said that New Yorkers traveling on Friday “may wish to rearrange” their plans, and Mayor Eric Adams asked city residents to avoid driving on Friday if possible.

Ms. Hochul said that the state is planning to deploy more than 1,600 large plow trucks. The city’s sanitation department will send out hundreds of salt spreaders to pre-treat roads ahead of the storm.

The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey said this week that it was expecting nearly 15 million travelers to use the region’s airports — including John F. Kennedy International, Newark Liberty International, and LaGuardia — along with its bridges and tunnels during the holiday season, with travel peaking on Sunday.

The Port Authority said it was monitoring the weather forecast and encouraged travelers using the region’s bridges and tunnels to sign up for email alerts ahead of the storm, and for people using airports to check FlightAware for delays and cancellations.

On Christmas Day, some children in New York City were already anticipating the possibility of significant snowfall.

At the Hippo Playground within Riverside Park on the Upper West Side, Arianna Wesby, 11, was playing with her five cousins, whom she was visiting from El Paso, and bracing for the coming unfamiliar weather.

Back home, Arianna said, “They have sand storms, they have wind storms,” — not snowstorms. She was not prepared for what Friday would bring. “I brought shorts!”

The storm will represent one last managerial challenge for Mr. Adams, the outgoing mayor.

The city’s police commissioner, Jessica Tisch, had been responsible for snow removal in her old job as sanitation chief. She joked on social media that she was “suffering from an acute case of FOMO” after reading the forecast.

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New York City got a bit of snow earlier in December. On Friday and Saturday, the city is expecting a more significant accumulation. Credit…Charly Triballeau/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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The space around Earth has become increasingly cluttered with decades of accumulated debris left over from rocket launches, derelict satellites, and the occasional antisatellite weapon test—not to mention growing mega constellations of thousands of active satellites. This influx of traffic means satellite operators have a fast-shrinking window of time to avoid a catastrophic collision in an emergency.

“While we had many months in the past, we now have less than a week for a close passage of serious concern—quite possibly a major collision,” says Aaron Boley, an astronomer at the University of British Columbia.

A new “Collision Realization and Significant Harm (CRASH) Clock” measure, described by Boley and his colleagues in a preprint posted to the server arXiv.org, shows how the rise of mega constellations has created an “orbital house of cards.” The clock uses statistics to estimate how long spacecraft now have to avoid a dangerous close pass or a collision, Boley says.

That reaction window has shrunk considerably since satellite mega constellations took off with the launch of SpaceX’s first Starlink satellites in 2019. The researchers’ latest, unpublished calculations suggest that the CRASH clock value stood at about 5.5 days as of June 2025, compared with 164 days back in January 2018. The clock suggests the average satellite in low-Earth orbit currently faces a 17 percent chance of a close approach that could lead to a collision within 24 hours, which means satellites must make more frequent evasive maneuvers than they used to.

“As a concept, the CRASH Clock is powerful because it turns ‘space is getting crowded’ into a time-based metric people can understand,” says Aaron Rosengren, a mechanical and aerospace engineer at the University of California, San Diego, who was not involved in the study. “The exact number matters less than the trend.”

The calculation looks at the current orbits of all cataloged objects and makes simplified assumptions about factors such as satellite distributions in orbit. It doesn’t account for different maneuvering policies or risk thresholds among satellite operators.

Spacecraft may not always be able to act quickly enough to avoid a crash, especially if software glitches or powerful solar storms interfere. In 2019, a European Space Agency science satellite had to dodge a SpaceX Starlink satellite, in part because of a “bug” in the communication system used between the agency and Starlink. More recently, this month, SpaceX described a near miss between one of its Starlink vehicles and a newly launched Chinese satellite.

The risk of collision and the cascading buildup of space debris—described as Kessler-Cour-Palais Syndrome—is only growing as companies and governments launch more satellites into similar orbits. The more than 9,000 Starlink satellites that are currently active account for about two thirds of all active satellites. Rivals such as Amazon’s Project Kuiper and Chinese companies are also racing to build their own mega constellations. Future plans for orbital space mirrors and space data centers may further complicate the situation.

The challenge is to coordinate collision avoidance among so many independent organizations that use different tools for monitoring space and do not all share information equally, Rosengren says. “The biggest driver is simple arithmetic,” he adds. “Far more satellites in the same orbital bands means far more close approaches, and the screening and response workload grows extremely fast.”

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