James' World 2

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The surest sign of democratic collapse is the unwillingness of an elected political party to leave office. The party rewrites laws and changes election rules to prevent its opponents from gaining power. The shift often starts slowly but can ultimately end in autocracy.

President Trump has taken worrisome steps down this path since returning to office in January 2025. He has directed Republican-run states to enact newly gerrymandered maps to increase the chances that Republicans maintain control of Congress even if they receive fewer votes this year. He has tried to pass legislation that could keep many eligible voters from voting. And he has sent signals that he may use the power of the federal government to disallow legitimate ballots this fall. On July 16, Mr. Trump took the remarkable step of giving a prime-time White House address devoted to lies and misleading statements about voter fraud.

The New York Times editorial board is tracking 12 categories of democratic erosion in the United States, based on historical patterns and interviews with experts. Our index places the United States on a scale of 0 to 10 for each category. Zero represents the United States before Mr. Trump began his second term — not perfect, surely, but still a strong democracy. Ten represents the condition in a true autocracy, such as China, Iran and Russia. Based on Mr. Trump’s statements and actions about the 2026 midterms, we are moving our assessment of one of the categories — manipulating the law to stay in power— up one notch, to Level 3:

Together, Mr. Trump’s actions have left constitutional scholars and democracy experts anxious about this year’s midterm elections. They wonder if the Trump administration may use false pretenses to send federal agents to Democratic-leaning areas to intimidate people and suppress voting. Experts are also worried that after the elections, Mr. Trump may pressure legislators not to certify the winners, as he unsuccessfully tried to do after the 2020 presidential election. Even if he does not take these extreme steps, the gerrymandering campaign he has demanded has probably tilted the competition for control of the House of Representatives at least 2.5 percentage points in Republicans’ direction.

It remains unclear how far Mr. Trump will go this fall. He does often make statements that amount to little. But his extended attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election should make clear that the threat is real. He has demonstrated that he prioritizes his own interests over the national interest. He is often willing to defy bipartisan traditions and even act illegally.

Politicians from both major parties and federal judges should be prepared to push back forcefully against any attempt he and his allies make to interfere with the 2026 elections. If the president succeeds in perverting the results, he will be emboldened to take similarly unconstitutional steps in 2028.

This editorial is our fourth version of the autocracy index, which we first published in October 2025. The updated version includes chronological lists of the antidemocratic steps Mr. Trump has taken in all 12 categories, and we plan to update them again in the months ahead.

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The surest sign of democratic collapse is the unwillingness of an elected political party to leave office

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