James' World 2

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After a spate of bad polls earlier this summer, President Trump simply declared that they were not true. “MY REAL POLL NUMBERS ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE EVER BEEN,” he wrote on social media, using capital letters as if they would shout away any contrary data.

In fact, his real poll numbers are at or near the lowest they have ever been in some nonpartisan surveys. A flurry of new samples in recent days found that Mr. Trump is at the nadir of his presidency, with support from just around a third of Americans as a stalemated war in Iran and high gas prices take a political toll.

The latest surveys indicate that Mr. Trump is now all but the most unpopular second-term president at this stage of their tenure in the history of polling going back to the 1940s. The only exception is not one that would give Mr. Trump much solace: Richard M. Nixon had even less public support at this stage in his second term, but at that point he was just days away from resigning over the Watergate scandal.

These kinds of poll numbers would throw a normal White House into panic mode, especially coming just three months before a midterm election. Someone might be fired. A speech might be written. A new set of policies might be devised. But Mr. Trump has never been a normal president, and he does not react to political circumstances in the same way his predecessors have. Through force of will and command over his MAGA base, he has traditionally played a weak hand strong.

“He’s always going to project strength regardless what the numbers are, and he’ll say they’re fake anyway,” said Douglas Heye, a longtime Republican strategist, adding that he did not expect any switch in political strategy. “Short of him screaming and throwing something at a staffer, that’s it.”

It is, of course, hard to have a course correction if it is not entirely clear what the course was to begin with. The most impulsive president of modern times, Mr. Trump follows his instincts and can completely reverse himself by the day, or sometimes the hour.

It has worked well enough for him that he has dominated American politics for more than a decade. Even though he won a plurality in 2024, Mr. Trump has never won a majority of the popular vote in any of his three elections nor enjoyed support from a majority in Gallup polling at any point of either term. Yet he has governed as if he were a more popular president.

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A flurry of new samples in recent days found that Mr. Trump is at the nadir of his presidency. Credit…Kenny Holston/The New York Times

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