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The last time President Trump faced a midterm election, in 2018, congressional Republicans were dragged down by his unpopularity and lost more than three dozen House seats.
But even in defeat, the bottom never truly fell out for the Republicans that year — the party actually gained ground in the Senate — as working-class white voters largely kept their faith in Mr. Trump’s economic know-how.
Today, that once-deep reservoir of good will has largely evaporated.
Blue-collar white voters are, for the first time, seriously doubting Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy. A review of polling by The New York Times shows an extraordinary swing on that issue among white voters without college degrees between his first midterm election and now.
Then, working-class white voters approved of his management of the economy by margins of 30 percentage points or even more. Now, recent polls show them disapproving by anywhere from 14 to more than 30 points.
Mr. Trump’s approval on the economy has dropped across practically every group. But his cratering support among a loyal demographic that has served as the foundation of his political coalition for a decade has the potential to be among the most consequential developments of 2026, according to interviews with strategists in both parties who are involved in the midterms.
Polls now regularly show that a majority of white voters who did not graduate from college no longer approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy. Examples of his low ratings include polls from Fox News (33 percent approval), CBS News (39 percent), NPR/PBS/Marist (40 percent), CNN (43 percent), and The New York Times/Siena College (47 percent).
In other words, he has lost the faith of his most loyal supporters on the year’s most pressing issue.
Mr. Trump’s advisers are actively pressing to shore up support, trying to sell policies in last year’s tax cut package. The Treasury Department this month released a new report detailing how workers benefited from the tax bill. And then this past week, Mr. Trump’s $350 million super PAC, MAGA Inc., put out its very first statement since the 2024 election. The topic was telling: how tax cuts specifically helped the working and middle class.
“It’s working-class voters who are not happy with the Republican Party, and they may not come out and vote,” John McLaughlin, a Republican pollster who has worked for Mr. Trump for years, warned in an interview. He said he had seen backsliding of Mr. Trump’s gains in 2024 among working-class Black and Hispanic voters, too.
At this point, one of the only groups still supporting him on the economy in polls are Republicans.
Democrats are moving to capitalize, drawing up plans to compete in new places that not long ago had seemed too demographically daunting — more white and rural electorates in states such as Iowa that have trended Republican for years.
The Democratic brand, however, remains deeply tarnished among working-class white voters. Polls show many of them have not yet moved all the way toward saying they will vote for Democrats this fall.
Alex Pfeiffer, a MAGA Inc. spokesman, said Democrats would be forced to defend their record on immigration and opposition to the president’s tax bill. “Democrats will have to explain why they voted to take more money from tipped and overtime workers, as well as seniors on Social Security,” he said.
Yet even a more muted turnout from blue-collar white voters, who voted more than two to one for Mr. Trump in 2024, could imperil his party’s chances in November.
“It’s critical,” Mr. McLaughlin, the Trump pollster, said of mobilizing the white working class. “If they don’t, we lose the House and the Senate.”
‘A watershed moment’
Mr. Trump stormed back to power in 2024, promising to stop illegal immigration, tame inflation, and rev up the economy. He won 66 percent of white, blue-collar votes, according to exit polling — the exact share he received in his first election in 2016.
Yet in the months since his second inauguration, Mr. Trump’s pursuit of tariffs, persistently high prices for gas and groceries, his focus on foreign affairs, particularly the war in Iran; and ongoing inflation appear to have sapped that support, even as border crossings have plunged.
“The biggest problem is they have been driven — and continue to be driven — by the cost-of-living pressure,” said Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster. “Prices, stagnant wages, and anxiety over when the next shoe is to drop.”
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Among blue-collar white voters, President Trump’s approval rating on the cost of living stood at just 36 percent in a New York Times survey. Credit…Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
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