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Diners who had been skipping sit-down meals returned first, fueling triple-digit spending gains at casual chains.
Key Points
- Tax refunds are giving Americans a short-term boost in dining out, with restaurant spending jumping 53% in the two weeks after refunds were deposited, according to Chime data.
- Full-service restaurants are seeing the biggest gains, as diners use refunds to return to sit-down meals they had been skipping due to rising costs.
- While grocery spending also increased, much of it went toward restocking essentials, highlighting how refunds briefly ease budget pressures.
The cost of eating out has climbed faster than grocery prices for three straight years, with full-service restaurant prices rising another 0.3% in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics More than 70% of consumers would dine out more often if they had more disposable income, the National Restaurant Association’s 2026 State of the Restaurant Industry report found — but for most Americans, that extra room simply hasn’t been there.
Tax refund season changed that, at least temporarily. Chime, a financial services app that tracked spending among members who filed taxes through its platform, found that overall spending jumped 85% in the two weeks after refunds were deposited, with restaurant spending rising 53% in that same window.
The analysis covered 148,000 members who deposited their refunds through the app and made 15 or more purchases per month in the four months before and after filing. The surge came after members had already set aside a portion in savings, meaning the jump reflects people choosing to eat out, not just spending because the money was there.
The refunds arriving this season are also larger than in recent years. The average refund reached $3,462 in 2026, up more than 11% from the same point last year, according to the IRS’s filing season update on April 3. For many lower- and middle-income families, that check is the largest single deposit of the year, and a significant share of it went to a restaurant table.
Janelle Sallenave, Chime’s chief operating officer, notes that members came into tax season ready to act. “More than half of those using the in-app tool filed in January and February,” Sallenave says. “Members were deliberate with their refunds, both increasing their spending and also setting aside a portion for savings. On the savings side, we see about a quarter of the refund moved to savings accounts on average, and balances remained up nearly 50% several months later.”
Diners splurge on sit-down meals after tax refunds
Diners who had been skipping sit-down meals returned to full-service restaurants first once refunds were in hand. Spending climbed 183% at Chili’s, 127% at Texas Roadhouse, and 80% at Buffalo Wild Wings. McDonald’s saw a 36% increase, which is meaningful but well below what the sit-down chains recorded. Diners have been heading back to chain steakhouses like Texas Roadhouse steadily since mid-2024, drawn by meals that feel worth the spend even when budgets are tight. For people who had been choosing between cooking at home and grabbing something quick, the refund was enough to bring them back to the kind of meal they’d been putting off.
More people were walking into restaurants in February than at any point in the previous nine months, according to the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index. The timing lines up with early refund deposits, though whether those diners keep coming back once the money works its way through is another question.
Shoppers restocked groceries, but spending stayed modest
Shoppers who had been paring down their grocery lists for months used the refund to add back what they’d dropped. Spending at Kroger, Safeway, Publix, and Food Lion generally rose by less than 60%, while growing by closer to 115% each at Walmart and Target. At traditional grocers, people were restocking essentials like meat, dairy, and cereals — categories where the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported falling prices in March. At Walmart and Target, they were buying across the store, picking up household items and other things that had been kept off the list because budgets were stretched.
Refund-fueled spending may already be slowing
Tax Day falls on April 15, and the IRS has issued 69.8 million refunds as of early April, with more still processing. Restaurant prices haven’t come down, and the pressure that kept diners away from sit-down meals for most of last year hasn’t eased. The refund gave Americans a few weeks to eat the way they wanted to, not the way they had to — and for most, that window may already be closing again.
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Credit: Jurij Pliatsushok / Getty Images
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