Hmmmm… Does Trump want civil war?
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Confidence among Trump supporters about the nation’s trajectory is slipping, according to new polling.
YouGov/Economist polling shows that at the start of September, 75 percent of Trump voters said the country was headed in the right direction, while just 17 percent believed it was on the wrong track. By the end of the month, those numbers shifted to 70 percent and 22 percent, respectively—a net negative swing of 10 points.
The YouGov/Economist poll is not the first to show that Republicans are growing increasingly pessimistic. The latest Gallup poll showed a fall in optimism about the direction of the country among Republicans to 68 percent in September, from 76 percent in August.
And according to AP-NORC, the share of Republicans saying the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction has surged from 29 percent in June to 51 percent in September. Among Republicans under 45, that number leapt by 30 points to 61 percent.
A Marquette poll from this month also reflected declining optimism, showing Republican satisfaction with the country’s direction falling from 79 percent in July to 70 percent in September.
The drop in optimism comes after a turbulent September for the Trump administration. The killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk rattled parts of the movement, while the White House faced backlash over what critics described as a crackdown on free speech following the decision by ABC News to take the Jimmy Kimmel show off air after his remarks about Kirk. The month closed with a bitter standoff in Washington that led to a government shutdown, fueling further uncertainty.
Concerns About Political Violence
The death of Charlie Kirk has ignited concerns among Republicans about political violence, according to polling.
A Quinnipiac poll found that a majority of Republicans (60 percent) believe the U.S. is in a political crisis. YouGov polling also found that 67 percent of Republicans think political violence is a very big problem.
And a Marquette survey shows that Republicans see political violence as a serious problem, but they overwhelmingly blame the left for it. More than half of Republicans (57 percent) say left-wing violence is the bigger issue, while only 3 percent point to right-wing violence. At the same time, they are less likely than Democrats to connect aggressive political language to an increased risk of violence—just 39 percent of Republicans say heated rhetoric makes violence much more likely, compared to 63 percent of Democrats.
Meanwhile, Gallup polling shows that the fallout from Kirk’s assassination has shifted Americans’ sense of national priorities. Gallup found mentions of crime or violence as the country’s top problem rose from 3 percent in August to 8 percent in September, the highest in five years. Concern about national unity doubled from 5 percent to 10 percent, the highest since the aftermath of January 6.
But partisan divides are clear. Republicans drove most of the increase in concern about crime, jumping from 6 percent to 14 percent, while independents fueled the spike in unity concerns, climbing from 5 percent to 13 percent.
Republicans have responded with near-uniform outrage and grief to the assassination of Kirk, describing his killing as both a personal tragedy and a political turning point.
Trump was among the first to speak out, calling Kirk’s death a “dark moment for America” and praising him as “a tremendous person” who devoted his life to the conservative cause.
Within days, he ordered flags to be flown at half-staff and announced that Kirk would receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom posthumously. At a memorial service in Arizona, Trump elevated Kirk as a “martyr for American freedom” and placed blame on the “radical left” for creating what he described as the climate of hostility that led to the shooting.
Other Republican lawmakers struck similar notes. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senator Mike Lee both praised Kirk’s influence on the conservative movement and condemned the violence that ended his life, calling the assassination a reminder of America’s increasingly dangerous political climate.
Vice President JD Vance also echoed Trump’s framing, urging supporters to treat the killing not just as an act of violence, but as part of a broader cultural battle, warning that those who mocked Kirk’s death online were contributing to the same climate the president condemned.
But Peter Loge, director of the Project on Ethics in Political Communication at George Washington University, told Newsweek that it is exactly this kind of rhetoric that is contributing toward the growing sense of dissatisfaction with the country’s trajectory.
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President Donald Trump walks from Marine One after arriving on the South Lawn of the White House, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
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