James' World 2

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The president issued letters to several countries, including South Korea and Japan, warning that the tariff rate on their goods would go up on August 1. It came after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted that many governments never contacted the United States for trade talks. Susan Glasser, Akayla Gardner and Justin Wolfers join.

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Hmmmm… As usual, this administration is shortsighted and will put our country further behind the world!

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Mathematics research typically requires few materials. To explore the secrets of prime numbers, investigate unimaginable shapes or elucidate other fundamental mysteries of our universe, mathematicians don’t usually need special labs and equipment or to pay participants in clinical trials. Instead, funding for mathematicians goes toward meetings of the mind—conferences, workshops, and institutes where they gather for intensive sessions to work out math’s knottiest problems. Funding also supports the stipends of research fellows, postdoctoral scholars, and promising early-career mathematicians.

But under the Trump administration’s National Science Foundation, much of this funding is being revoked or cut, which, according to experts, could be catastrophic for the present and future of the field. In one recent example, the NSF canceled funding for the Association for Women in Mathematics’ research symposium in Wisconsin just four business days before the event was set to begin in May. The threat to this event catalyzed the American Mathematical Society to offer $1 million in backstop grants to support programs whose federal funding has been cut or remains in limbo. These grants are meant to provide a financial safety net that will temporarily allow math programs, researchers, and departments to continue operating—but it’s not a permanent solution. (Disclosure: The author of this article currently has a AAAS Mass Media Fellowship at Scientific American that is sponsored by the American Mathematical Society.)

“The funding cut is severe, and all of mathematics will be impacted,” says Raegan Higgins, president of the Association for Women in Mathematics and a mathematician at Texas Tech University.

Movies and television shows often portray mathematicians scribbling on chalkboards in seclusion, but that picture is often far from accurate. “None of us work in isolation,” Higgins says. In fact, mathematicians rely heavily on their ability to gather and discuss ideas with their peers—perhaps even more than researchers in other fields do. For mathematicians, conferences, workshops, and research talks are not just opportunities to share research and network but also crucial moments to work out tough problems together with colleagues, pose field-propelling questions, and generate new ideas.

“It’s a thinking science, [and] it’s a communication science, so we rely on being together to share ideas and to move the needle forward,” says Darla Kremer, executive director of the Association for Women in Mathematics. According to John Meier, CEO of the American Mathematical Society, “the ability of mathematicians to gather and talk with each other is absolutely central to the vitality of the field.”

Federal dollars, largely through the NSF, are responsible for a significant portion of math funding. But a lot of that funding is disappearing under the Trump administration. In April, NSF staff members were instructed to “stop awarding all funding actions until further notice.” Over the past 10 years, on average, the NSF has awarded $113 million in grants to mathematics by May 21 of each year. This year, the NSF has awarded only $32 million, representing a 72 percent reduction. By this metric, mathematics is one of the most deeply affected subjects, second only to physics, which has seen an 85 percent reduction. 

The administration is also canceling and freezing funding that it had previously promised to researchers. More than $14 million of funding already promised to mathematics programs was revoked earlier this year, according to an analysis by Scientific American. In response to a request for comment, the National Science Foundation told Scientific American that “the agency has determined that termination of certain awards is necessary because they are not in alignment with current NSF priorities and/or programmatic goals.”

This withdrawal of grants is eroding trust and seeding uncertainty, experts say, and it comes with long-term consequences. Even if funding gets renewed again later, it can be very difficult for halted programs to recover. “If you have to shut down a lab and mothball it, that actually takes time and effort,” Meier says. “You can’t just walk in two weeks later, flip a switch, and have everything running again. You’ve got to rebuild it.” Even in mathematics, that process of rebuilding is time-intensive and not always possible if the space has been reallocated or the people have moved on.

American Mathematical Society leadership fears these cuts will hurt young mathematicians the most. Like in the sciences, the funding cuts are eliminating research experiences and supportive programming for undergraduates, fellowships for graduate students and positions for postdoctoral researchers. Travel funding for conferences is also disappearing, which leaves young researchers to choose between shelling out for airfare and lodging they can’t really afford and forgoing major career and research-building opportunities. As these opportunities disappear, young mathematicians are beginning to look elsewhere—either to more lucrative jobs in the private sector or to more supportive countries. “We worry about diminishing opportunities in the United States and people early in their career deciding that maybe there’s a more profitable venue for them to pursue mathematics in another country,” Meier says. “We love good mathematics wherever it arises, but we’d really like to see a lot of it arising in the United States. We think that’s very, very important.”

 The $1 million in backstop grants can’t fill the hole left by the more than $14 million in promised funding that has been denied or the more than $80 million in reduced funding so far this year. But it might be enough to keep many projects afloat simply by offering guaranteed access to funds in a turbulent time. “I think one of the great difficulties that we’re dealing with right now is the high level of uncertainty,” Meier says. Some mathematicians, for example, simply don’t know whether their projects are still being funded or not. In some applications for the backstop grants, researchers “basically talk about being ghosted,” Meier explains. “They say, ‘I can’t actually verify that we no longer have funding. I can only tell you my program officer [at the NSF] isn’t replying to my request for information.’” 

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Measures of business uncertainty have begun to ease recently, with tariff deals being announced with Japan and the European Union. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Uncertainty Index declined in June and will likely come down further in July. When uncertainty declines, businesses tend to be more willing to invest and expand. Perhaps related to the decline in uncertainty is that bank lending for commercial and industrial purposes has bumped up in June and July after staying flat for two years. However, businesses are still showing their caution by limiting their hiring plans.

Labor costs continue to ease slowly at the mid-year mark. Annual wage growth has dipped from 3.9% at the beginning of the year to 3.7% now, and should hit 3.5% by the end of 2025. However, production worker/blue collar wage growth should stay a bit higher, at 3.7%, as slowing immigration reduces labor supply for these jobs. Of course, the construction, agriculture, retail, leisure, and hospitality industries will be most affected by possible labor shortages because of their reliance on immigrants.

Tariffs will add about 15% to the cost of most imports, on average. Businesses will face the decision of whether to pass that cost along to end-users or customers. Some will accept reduced profit margins in order to maintain current customer relationships. As more trade deals are made and the future landscape turns more predictable, businesses can project pricing decisions better. But the prices of raw materials like steel, aluminum, copper, and graphite could jump, given special tariff rates of 50% or more. Commerce Department investigations are continuing for semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and lumber. A lumber import tariff of 35% is expected when that investigation concludes in the next month or two.

Other tariffs that have been implemented include an additional 20% on imports from China, bringing the rate to 30%; 25% on imported motor vehicles; 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico that were not covered under the previous USMCA agreement (which is up for renegotiation in July 2026); and 10% on energy imports from Canada. Recent trade agreements include 15% tariffs on Japan and the European Union, and 10% on the United Kingdom. Important for foreign automakers is that these trade deals mean a reduction from the original tariff of 25% imposed on auto imports back in April.

The cost of shipping by truck will follow the seasonal pattern of the past two years. Rates have fluctuated in a narrow band for a while, and won’t pick up appreciably until demand for manufactured goods and home construction improves. However, UPS and FedEx rates have spiked this year as earlier surcharges appear to be permanent. As a result, shippers are looking to slower, cheaper services like FedEx Ground Economy, UPS Ground Saver, and, of course, the U.S. Postal Service.

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Kiplinger video

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A frantic arms race between the US and China is underway in the Pacific while the fate of Taiwan hangs in the balance.

Washington and its allies are trying to stay ahead of Chinese capabilities, shaking Beijing off-balance as it considers whether it can launch a successful invasion of Taiwan.

At the heart of the US strategy is a new technology that has the ability to inflict devastating losses on the Chinese navy: precision strike missiles (PrSMs, pronounced “prisms”).

The missile has just been tested in Australia, where it struck a target more than 190 miles away, marking the first time the Lockheed Martin-manufactured weapon has been used by a US ally.

It can be fired with either American-made HIMARS or British MLRS artillery systems: missile launchers that were recently used by Ukraine to launch counter-offensives on invading Russian forces and strike deep inside enemy territory, blunting Moscow’s advances.

Game-changing firepower

To date, those launchers have been used with Atacms missiles, which have been in service for more than three decades with a top range of some 190 miles.

But PrSMs reportedly have a range of more than 300 miles, with the potential for this to improve in future variants. And at the recent test flight in Australia, the missile reached speeds of 4,000kmph, beating the Atacms by some 300kmph.

Each launch pod will be able to hold two of the precision missiles, compared to just a single Atacm, according to Alex Miller, the US Army’s chief technology officer. It is also said to be less susceptible to jamming.

The PrSMs combine those next-generation improvements with the advantages of the Himars and MLRS systems, which are quick, agile and relatively easy to disguise – and could wreak havoc on Chinese ships attempting an invasion.

Brad Bowman, a senior director at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, said: “It really creates a challenge for our adversaries, because where that system is now, it may not be there in 30 seconds or five minutes… That’s a real detection and targeting dilemma.”

Both the US and China are ramping up their military capabilities in the Pacific and particularly around Taiwan, which Beijing regards as part of its territory even though it has effectively been independent since the 1940s.

Taiwan under threat

Earlier this year, Xi Jinping, the Chinese premier, said “reunification” with China was inevitable, and that those on either side of the Taiwan Strait were “one family”.

China has regularly threatened Taiwan with fighter jet and warship incursions, but has always stopped short of a direct confrontation.

At a security conference in May, Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, warned that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan “could be imminent”.

The stakes couldn’t be higher, for both sides.

If the US’s military capabilities are outstripped by China, it would prove fatal to Taiwan, which relies on Washington to provide a credible deterrent. And if the island nation falls, it means the loss of a key strategic buffer against Beijing expansionism.

But failing to take the island would inflict a stunning blow on China, and almost certainly lead to the fall of Xi’s regime.

“There’s always a constant battle with both sides to try to respond to whatever advances the other side has,” said Doug Bandow, a senior fellow with the Cato Institute.

“But I’d say these [PrSMs] have the potential for dramatically increasing the risk factor for a Chinese fleet. So that’s substantial.”

China’s military will be only too aware of the damage Ukraine has managed to inflict on Russia using Himars since they were first provided by the US in June 2022, and will be warily eyeing the upgraded precision missiles.

Taiwan already has 11 HIMARS from previous arms sales with the US, and it is expected to receive more in 2026.

Mr Bandow said the PrSMs will have inflicted an important psychological blow on China without any shots even being fired, and could convince its leadership to delay its imperial ambitions.

“The most important advantage of a weapons advance like this is it simply encourages the Chinese to say, ‘No… we don’t have to do it now’,” he told The Telegraph.

“In my view, the best chance of getting through this is to simply have that happen a lot. And hopefully we can get to a point, whatever that point is, where everyone agrees war is really stupid and this won’t happen.”

Credit: Taiwan Military News Agency

Real damage could be inflicted on the Chinese fleet, both in ports and moving out to a potential invasion, if PRSs are deployed throughout Taiwan and the rest of the first island chain, which includes Japan, Indonesia and parts of the Philippines.

Australia aligns with US

Elsewhere in the Pacific, Australia signed a $310m deal with the US to join the missile programme in June.

“This is all about extending deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, all about signalling to any potential adversary that pain can be inflicted,” Pat Conroy, Australia’s defence industry minister, said at the test flight this month.

But China is also moving quickly to innovate, and earlier this year appeared to be constructing D-Day style barges for an invasion that would allow it to bypass rocky or soft beaches unsuitable for tanks, providing multiple fronts for an invasion.

Some experts are concerned the US is too slow to procure PrSMs. The Pentagon’s recent funding request to Congress shows the army intends to buy 44 of the missiles from Lockheed Martin.

“There’s very rarely a decisive game changer by itself… but this is a key capability for the United States and our allies to have,” Mr Bowman said.

“That is the ability to sink Chinese naval vessels in large quantities from ground-based mobile platforms. That’s why I think we need a whole lot of them, fast.”

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An Australian Army HIMARS fires a Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) in the Northern Territory during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025 – CPL Cameron Pegg

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To grow its economy, China is betting big on artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and other digital technology—and a big part of that bet involves rapidly building data centers to boost computing power. But these massive collections of servers gobble up growing amounts of energy, and each one cycles through hundreds of thousands of gallons of water a day to carry away the heat they generate.

That means these facilities—in China and beyond—will increasingly compete with water demand linked directly to human survival, from agriculture to daily drinking. Many companies have sited their data centers in some of the driest regions of the world, including Arizona, parts of Spain, and the Middle East, because dry air reduces the risks of damage to the equipment from humidity, according to an investigation by the nonprofit journalist organization SourceMaterial and the Guardian. Partly to address water concerns, China is now putting a data center in the wettest place there is: the ocean. This June construction began on a wind-powered underwater data center about six miles off the coast of Shanghai, one of China’s AI hubs. [Read more: What Do Google’s AI Answers Cost the Environment?]

“China’s ambitious approach signals a bold shift toward low-carbon digital infrastructure, and it could influence global norms in sustainable computing,” says Shabrina Nadhila, an analyst at energy-focused think tank Ember, who has researched data centers.

Keeping Data Centers Cool

Data centers store information and perform complex calculations for businesses, whose increasing automation is steadily ramping up such needs. These facilities consume vast amounts of electricity and water because their servers work nonstop and in close proximity—and they generate waste heat as a by-product, which can damage equipment and destroy data. So they need to be constantly cooled.

Instead, undersea data centers use pipes to pump seawater through a radiator on the back of server racks to absorb heat and carry it away. Hailanyun—the company sometimes referred to as HiCloud, that is behind the Shanghai data center—says an assessment conducted with the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology shows its project uses at least 30 percent less electricity than on-land data centers, thanks to natural cooling.

The Shanghai center will also be connected to a nearby offshore wind farm that is set to supply 97 percent of its energy, says Hailanyun spokesperson Li Langping.

The project’s first phase is designed to contain 198 server racks—enough to hold 396 to 792 AI-capable servers—and is slated to begin operation in September, Li says. It is expected to provide enough computing power to complete the equivalent of training GPT-3.5—the large language model that OpenAI released in 2022 and used to fine-tune ChatGPT—in the space of a day, he adds. Yet Hailanyun’s Shanghai center is small compared with a typical land-based one: a medium-scale data center in China normally has up to 3,000 standard racks, while a superscale version can contain more than 10,000.

Leapfrogging the U.S.

At the core of Hailanyun’s $223-million Shanghai gambit is a technology that Microsoft pioneered more than a decade ago under an effort called Project Natick, in which the company sank a shipping-container-sized capsule holding more than 800 servers 117 feet below the surface off the coast of Scotland. After hauling up the pod two years later, Microsoft found that underwater data centers “are reliable, practical and use energy sustainably.”

The experiment also resulted in fewer broken servers compared with on-land data centers because the vessel was sealed off and filled with nitrogen, which is less corrosive than oxygen, Microsoft said in a 2020 press release. The lack of people also meant that the equipment avoided physical contacts or movements that may otherwise cause them damage in an on-land center, the company said.

But Microsoft has reportedly shelved Project Natick. A company spokesperson did not answer questions about whether or not the project was terminated. Instead, they provided a statement: “While we don’t currently have data centers in the water, we will continue to use Project Natick as a research platform to explore, test, and validate new concepts around data center reliability and sustainability.”

Hailanyun aims to leapfrog American companies: if the Shanghai project is successful, Li expects his company to springboard toward large-scale deployments of offshore, wind-powered undersea data centers with the support of the Chinese government.

Zhang Ning, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California, Davis, who specializes in next-generation low-carbon infrastructure, notes that Hailanyun has moved from a pilot project conducted in Hainan in December 2022 to commercial rollouts in less than 30 months—“something Microsoft’s Project Natick never attempted.”

Environmental Concerns

In spite of the apparent benefits of underwater data centers, some concerns remain—especially over potential environmental impacts. Microsoft researchers found their pod had caused some localized warming in the sea, though the impact was limited. “The water just meters downstream of a Natick vessel would get a few thousandths of a degree warmer at most,” they wrote.

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The economy was supposed to crumble. The trade war was expected to escalate out of control. Markets were forecast to plunge.

None of that happened – at least, not yet.

President Donald Trump has pulled off what few outside the White House predicted: A trade war victory of sorts that sets America’s taxes on imported goods higher than the infamous Smoot-Hawley era, without any of the damaging fallout so far. Customs revenue has increased sharply while inflation remains reasonably low. And America’s trading partners, for the most part, have been willing to accept the higher tariffs without significant retaliation.

Multiple framework agreements between the United States and other trading partners have jacked up tariffs on foreign goods imported to America while setting levies on US exports at or near zero. Overseas trading partners have agreed to open previously closed markets to some US goods, pledged increased investments in the United States and dropped some of what the Trump administration has lambasted as non-trade barriers, like taxes on digital services.

But Trump’s early trade victory may be short-lived. In fact, it is already showing signs that it may not last.

EU is already turning against its deal

The European Union, fresh off its 11th-hour compromise to get a trade agreement done before Trump’s self-imposed August 1 deadline, is already in revolt.

French Prime Minister François Bayrou called Sunday a “dark day.” Hungarian Prime Minister and Trump ally Viktor Orban said Trump steamrolled the EU. Belgium’s Prime Minister Bart De Wever lambasted the Trump administration’s “delusion of protectionism.” And Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee, said the deal is “not satisfactory.”

The 27-member bloc has to hammer out key aspects of its framework, and the fragile trade truce between two of the world’s largest economies could quickly break apart if sentiment turns against the arrangement.

Canada’s not playing ball

The Trump administration’s trade talks with its northern neighbor and one of its largest trading partners have been effectively shut down. Despite Canada relenting on its digital services tax that the president has lambasted, Trump continued to threaten higher tariffs on some Canadian goods, including lumber.

Although many goods imported from Canada continue to be tariff-free because of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement, the USMCA only covers just about half of Canadian goods. So higher tariffs on Canada could raise some costs for American consumers down the road.

And the fact that America is even embroiled in a trade spat with Canada in the first place is a sign that the recent cooling off in the trade war may not last: Trump negotiated and signed the United States’ current trade agreement with Canada during his first term. At any time, even after an agreement is inked, Trump could turn around and decide to raise tariffs again.

Elusive China deal

A third round of talks between China and the United States’ trade negotiators is expected to result in a continued pause of their historically high tariffs on one another. But it’s unclear what else might come from the discussions, and the Trump administration has grown frustrated by what it has described as China’s slow-walking of its previous agreements.

Both sides have aimed to reduce more regulatory barriers on shipments of key technologies. China has sought more access to critical semiconductors, and the United States wants the flow of rare earth magnets to increase further.

But the Trump administration has tried repeatedly to speed up China’s slow progress, claiming the country has failed to live up to its agreement to approve the critical materials for crucial electronics. Trump has also said he wants China to open up its market to more US goods – a desire that Chinese Premier Xi Jinping is unlikely to give in to significantly.

Trump’s rhetoric against China has cooled in recent months, but the truce appears to be on a knife’s edge.

Key court decision

A crucial appeals court hearing Thursday could determine whether most of Trump’s tariffs are legal at all.

For most of his tariffs, Trump has cited powers listed in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. But a federal court in May ruled that Trump overstepped his authority to levy tariffs on that basis.

An appeals court paused that ruling from taking effect and will hear oral arguments Thursday. It’s not clear when the court will rule, and the White House would likely appeal to the Supreme Court if it loses.

If Trump ultimately loses his ability to levy tariffs using emergency powers, he has plenty of other options – but legal experts have said those alternatives could limit his ability to set tariffs without Congress. For example, Trump may be able to impose some tariffs as high as just 15% but only for 150 days, potentially taking some of the bite out of his tariff regime.

Economy is flashing some warning signs

Although the US economy remains strong, with rebounding retail sales, a still-robust labor market, and rising consumer confidence, there is some evidence that inflation in key areas is starting to creep higher – slowly – because of tariffs. That’s a potential warning sign as the tariffs take full effect.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index, earlier this month, showed that some tariff-affected goods have started to gain in price. Clothing, appliances, computers, sporting goods, toys, video equipment, hardware, and tools prices have been on the rise. And it’s starting to become a trend – in many of those categories, the rise has been happening for a few months.

Many major retailers, including Walmart, have said they will raise prices because of tariffs. Procter & Gamble, which makes Tide and a host of consumer goods, said Tuesday it will raise prices in part because of tariffs. And GM, Volkswagen, and Stellantis all reported tariff charges of $1 billion or more over the past quarter.

Economists widely expect inflation to pick up in the late summer and throughout the rest of the year as retailers work through the inventories of goods they had stockpiled before tariffs went into effect. No one expects anything close to the inflation crisis of a few years ago. But with consumers still dealing with price-hike PTSD, that won’t be a welcome change from the return to healthy inflation levels over the past year.

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Taxes can get you thinking about fairness. For instance, when I’m calculating deductions on my salary and watching a decent chunk go to Uncle Sam, I can’t help but wonder: What if the ultra-wealthy paid the same percentage of their income in taxes that regular people do? So I decided to ask ChatGPT a simple question: “What would happen if billionaires paid taxes at the same rate as the middle class?” The AI’s response was more nuanced than I expected — and revealed some surprising truths about how our tax system really works.

Setting the Record Straight

First, ChatGPT corrected a common misconception I had. Based on actual data from PolitiFact and ProPublica investigations, the 25 wealthiest Americans currently pay an average federal income tax rate of 16% under existing law.

Meanwhile, households earning $50,000-$100,000 (where most teachers, firefighters, and other middle-class workers fall) typically pay an effective tax rate between 0% and 15%.

So contrary to what I’d heard, billionaires don’t actually pay less than teachers under current tax law. But here’s where it gets interesting.

How Wealth Grows vs. How Wages Work

ChatGPT explained that the issue isn’t necessarily the tax rates themselves, but how different types of income get taxed. This is where the system becomes genuinely unfair.

“Billionaires benefit from tax strategies that lower their effective tax burden compared to what ordinary income earners face on wages,” the AI explained. “The current system taxes work more than wealth.”

Here’s what that means in practice: When I get my salary, taxes come out immediately. When a billionaire’s stock portfolio increases in value by millions, they don’t pay taxes on that growth until (or unless) they sell those stocks.

The ‘Buy-Borrow-Die’ Strategy

ChatGPT broke down something called the “buy-borrow-die” strategy that wealthy people use to minimize taxes. It sounds like financial wizardry because, honestly, it kind of is.

Here’s how it works: Billionaires borrow money against their stock holdings (which isn’t taxed), live off those loans, and then pass their assets to heirs largely tax-free when they die. Meanwhile, regular people like me can’t defer taxes on our paychecks or borrow against our retirement accounts without major penalties.

The AI used ProPublica data to illustrate this: “The top 25 billionaires saw their wealth grow by $401 billion from 2014-2018, but paid just $13.6 billion in federal income taxes — an effective rate of 3.4% on wealth growth.”

That 3.4% figure is what really stung. While they’re paying their legal tax obligations on realized income, their actual wealth is growing at a rate that’s taxed far below what middle-class workers pay on their salaries.

What If We Changed the Rules?

ChatGPT ran the numbers on what would happen if billionaires paid taxes at the same rate middle-class families do — around 15%-22%.

Using the ProPublica data, if those top 25 billionaires had been taxed at a 20% rate on their wealth growth, they would have paid around $80 billion instead of $13.6 billion. 

“Extrapolate that across approximately 1,000 billionaires?” the AI asked. “You’re talking hundreds of billions in added revenue annually.”

Where That Money Could Go

The AI outlined several ways this massive revenue increase could transform government services:

• Healthcare: We could expand Medicare and Medicaid, potentially moving toward universal coverage.
• Education: Fund universal pre-K or make community college free for everyone.
• Infrastructure and climate: Invest seriously in clean energy projects and fix our crumbling roads and bridges.
• Debt reduction: Actually pay down the national debt instead of adding to it every year.

ChatGPT noted that this extra revenue could “stabilize the economy by boosting the spending power of everyday Americans.” Basically, reducing inequality in a way that helps everyone, not just those at the bottom.

What Surprised Me Most

The most eye-opening part was learning that the problem isn’t necessarily that billionaires are breaking the law or even paying lower rates on their taxable income. The issue is that our entire tax system is designed around taxing work rather than wealth.

“Middle-class families can’t defer taxes on wages or borrow against stocks tax-free,” ChatGPT pointed out. This creates a fundamental unfairness where people who work for their money get taxed immediately, while people whose money grows through investments can delay or even avoid those taxes entirely.

What We Need To Think About

After diving into ChatGPT’s analysis, I realized the conversation about billionaire taxes is more complicated than simple rate comparisons. Under current law, wealthy Americans do pay their required taxes. But the system allows their wealth to grow in ways that are largely untaxed, while regular workers pay taxes on every dollar they earn.

The AI concluded that if we could successfully tax billionaires more like middle-class workers, the results would mean hundreds of billions in additional revenue annually and potentially better funding for health, education, and climate programs. What’s more, it could have the power to reduce inequality and improve public trust in the tax system. 

Maybe the real question isn’t whether billionaires should pay more taxes, but whether our entire approach to taxing work versus wealth makes sense in an economy where most billionaires’ fortunes come from asset appreciation rather than traditional income.

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If you are one of the 39 million Americans in the U.S. living with migraines, there’s a good chance an intense headache will begin when the weather shifts.

You aren’t alone. Studies find 30% to 50% of people with migraines identify some type of weather change as a trigger, making it the most commonly reported migraine source.

Yet, it’s also one of the most puzzling.

Some people are more sensitive to weather

As a neurologist and headache specialist practicing in Colorado, a place with frequent weather shifts, patients often tell me that weather is one of their biggest migraine triggers. The results can disrupt work, school, and social plans, and create a sense of helplessness.

Doctors still don’t fully understand why some brains are more sensitive to environmental changes.

What we do know is that people with migraines have especially sensitive nervous systems, and that certain environmental changes – like shifts in air pressure, temperature, humidity, and air quality – can activate pathways in the brain that lead to pain.

Key ways weather can trigger migraines

Weather triggers can vary from person to person, but there are a few common migraine culprits:

Barometric pressure changes, or changes in atmospheric pressure, are among the most commonly cited triggers.

When a storm system moves in, the air pressure drops. Some scientists believe this change may affect the pressure inside your head or how blood vessels in your brain dilate and constrict.

One theory is that changes in barometric pressure may cause a small imbalance in the pressure between the inside of your skull and the outside environment. That might directly stimulate pain-sensitive nerves in the head, triggering inflammation and the start of a migraine.

Others point to inflammation, the way the brain processes sensory input, and changes in serotonin levels, which play a key role in activating migraine.

Temperature extremes, with very hot or very cold days, or sudden changes in temperature, can throw off the body’s internal balance. High humidity or rapid shifts in moisture levels can have a similar effect.

Air pollutants like ozone and nitrogen dioxide can cause inflammation in the nerves that play a role in migraines.

Bright sunlight can also be especially bothersome, likely due to heightened sensitivity to light and an overactive visual processing system in the brain.

Lightning and strong winds may also be linked to migraine attacks in certain individuals.

In short, weather changes can act as stressors on a brain that’s already wired to be more sensitive. The exact triggers and responses vary from person to person, but the research suggests that the interaction between weather and our biology plays a significant role for a subset of patients with migraines.

Steps you can take to reduce the pain

You can’t change the weather, but you can be proactive. Here are a few tips to help weather-proof your migraine routine:

1. Track your migraines and watch the forecast: Use a migraine diary or app to track when attacks occur, along with weather conditions. Patterns may emerge, such as attacks a day before rain or during temperature changes, that will allow you to adjust your schedule or medication plan.

2. Develop healthy eating, sleeping, and exercise habits: Dehydration, poor sleep, and skipped meals can magnify the effects of weather triggers, so keeping your body on an even keel helps reduce vulnerability. Regular exercise and a healthy diet can also help.

3. Create a migraine-friendly environment: On days when the sun is harsh or the humidity is high, stay inside. Sunglasses, eye masks or even blue-light glasses can be helpful. Some people find that certain earplugs are able to reduce pressure changes felt in the middle ear.

4. Try meditation, mindfulness techniques, or biofeedback, which teaches people to moderate their physiological responses, such as muscle responses and breathing. These strategies can help your nervous system become less reactive over time, which can be especially helpful when dealing with uncontrollable triggers like weather.

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Today, I’m talking with Richard Robinson, who is the cofounder and CEO of Robin AI. Richard has a fascinating resume: he was a corporate lawyer for high-profile firms in London before founding Robin in 2019 to bring AI tools to the legal profession, using a mix of human lawyers and automated software expertise. That means Robin predates the big generative AI boom that kicked off when ChatGPT launched in 2022.

As you’ll hear Richard say, the tools his company was building early on were based on fairly traditional AI technology — what we would have just called “machine learning” a few years ago. But as more powerful models and the chatbot explosion have transformed industries of all types, Robin AI is expanding its ambitions. It’s moving beyond just using AI to parse legal contracts into what Richard is envisioning as an entire AI-powered legal services business.AI can be unreliable, though, and when you’re working in law, unreliable doesn’t really cut it. It’s impossible to keep count of how many headlines we’ve already seen about lawyers using ChatGPT when they shouldn’t, citing nonexistent cases and law in their filings. Those attorneys have faced not only scathing rebukes from judges but also, in some cases, even fines and sanctions.

Naturally, I had to ask Richard about hallucinations, how he thinks the industry could move forward here, and how he’s working to make sure Robin’s AI products don’t land any law firms in hot water.

But Richard’s background also includes professional debate. Richard was the head debate coach at Eton College. So much of his expertise here, right down to how he structures his answers to some of my questions, can be traced back to just how experienced he is with the art of argumentation.

So, I really wanted to spend time talking through Richard’s history with debate, how it ties into both the AI and legal industries, and how these new technologies are making us reevaluate the difference between facts and truth in unprecedented ways.

Okay: Robin AI CEO Richard Robinson. Here we go.

Richard Robinson, founder and CEO of Robin AI. Great to have you here on Decoder.

Thanks for having me. I really appreciate it. It’s great to be here. I’m a big listener of the show.

We’ve spoken before. I’m going to be all over the place here, but I want to start off with Robin AI. We’re talking about AI in a lot of different ways nowadays. I started off my Decoder run with former Google employee Cassie Kozyrkov, talking to her about decision science.

But this is a specific application of artificial intelligence in an industry where there’s a lot of thinking going on, and there ought to be — the legal industry. Tell me, what is Robin AI? What’s the latest?

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Image: The Verge / Photo: Robin AI

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Representative April McClain Delaney warned that President Donald Trump’s cuts to programs like Medicaid, as well as NPR and PBS, are going to hit rural America like a “tsunami” in an interview with Newsweek.

Delaney’s Maryland congressional district contains some of the areas that could be hit hardest by Trump’s policies. It spans from the state’s rural western panhandle, which she says could bear the brunt of new rescission cuts, to the Washington, D.C., suburbs, home to federal workers who have lost their jobs amid the mass firings of federal workers.

She first won election to the Sixth District last November, defeating Republican Neil Parrott by about 6 percentage points in a light-blue district that has been competitive in recent elections.

Delaney spoke with Newsweek about how she believes cuts in the Republican rescission package and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would affect constituents in rural areas in the district and across the country.

“When you look at all of these funding freezes on our government employees on our national parks, but also Medicaid, SNAP, and then start looking at some of the other rescissions that it’s just a tsunami that’s about to hit rural America,” Delaney said.

How PBS, NPR Cuts Will Affect Rural America

Funding cuts for public media, such as PBS and NPR, which were included in a rescissions package passed by Congress earlier in July, could have devastating impacts on rural Americans, Delaney said.

Republicans argued that funding for these programs was a waste of taxpayer dollars and have accused the networks of pushing left-leaning programming. Critics, however, say public funding was a lifeline to communities that relied on their local NPR affiliates for news or PBS for free children’s programming.

When you look at the community that really relies on trusted news, one of the last trusted bastions of news is local news,” Delaney said. These cuts may have an impact on Amber Alerts and Emergency Broadcast System alerts, she said.

Recent flooding in Western Maryland’s Allegany County—a rural, conservative county inside Delaney’s district—underscores the importance of having robust local radio news, she said.

“We had floods in Allegany County, and luckily, because of the emergency alerts, they kept the kids in the school. They didn’t release them early. And as the rising waters went, I think, nine feet in 45 minutes, the kids went from the first floor, the second floor to the third floor, luckily were rescued and no one was hurt,” she said. “When you think about how alerts are really facilitated by our broadcast stations, particularly these rural communities, it’s a pretty big deal.”

Delaney, who spent much of her career advocating for children in media at nonprofits like Common Sense Media, said cuts to PBS will have consequences for children across the country.

“I really look at how this funding will impact rural America in terms of broadcast stations and, in particular, educational programming for our kids. PBS is really the only free programming, educational programming that these kids receive,” she said. “While you might hear some of my GOP colleagues [say] you can stream Sesame Street. Well, I hate to say this, our most disadvantaged kids in rural America, they can’t afford to have a streaming Netflix account, much less have rural broadband.”

Delaney predicted there would be a “significant outcry” from rural Americans if their local stations go under as a result of the cuts and that Democrats would eye the restoration of this funding if they retake control of Congress in the midterms.

The loss of these local stations would be a “loss of our community heart,” she said, noting that they have historically had community obligations and public interest standards.

“I still think there’s that residue reporting on the games from the football game at the high school or talking about the local fairs or the rodeo that’s going to be in town or what have you,” she said. “There is something that’s a big community builder. In these smaller stations in rural and even bigger suburban America.”

Cuts to Medicaid are another challenge facing rural America, she said, noting that one in seven families in her district relies on the program for health care.

What are you going to do in the long term in terms of rural health care and rural hospitals potentially closing? she said. “But also, you know, are all these premiums going to go up? Right, and what’s the impact?”

How Trump’s Agenda Is Affecting Federal Workers

Maryland’s Sixth District also encompasses parts of the D.C. suburbs and is home to more than 35,000 government workers who may be affected by cuts to the federal bureaucracy as part of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

So far, at least 260,000 federal workers have left their jobs since Trump returned to office in January, whether they were fired, retired early, or took a buyout, according to Reuters.

Delaney said many of them are still looking for jobs and have reached out to her office.

Health care is a key concern for these federal workers, she said.

“Many of them are concerned about the long-term, how they’re going to have health care, in addition to being able to find new jobs,” she said.

There are concerns that these “well-educated and well-adjusted” workers may be taken to the private sector or even leave the country as they seek new employment, she said.

“There are other big concerns about workforce development, and how are we going to look at maybe figuring out ways that they can retool some of their skills. I do think that many of our state governments might be able to fill in the gap for some of these workers. But, their concerns are, of course affordability, figuring out their next step, and interestingly enough, I’ve started hear more about AI,” she said.

Delaney Slams ‘Foolish’ Foreign Aid Cuts

Foreign aid cuts have been “one of the most foolish acts” of the Trump administration, Delaney said.

“Our world is on fire right now, and we have traditionally always been the one that has stepped in to help, whether it’s vaccinations, whether it is feeding women and children, whether it was displacement during times of war. But there is something in soft diplomacy,” she said. “What that means is that you are a trusted beacon of light. You are a source that people can depend upon around the world. And you do have more stability and peace when you have that.”

She warned that there is a “lack of trust” in the United States on the global stage right now, and that other countries, such as China, are “zooming in to fill that void.”

She described this foreign aid as the “cheapest part of our defense budget.”

“It is probably some of the most foolish cuts I’ve ever seen in my life, and it’s going to impact us globally, but that’s going to come to haunt us domestically as well,” she said.

Delaney on Trust in Government

Delaney also said her work in Congress is focused on restoring trust in the government amid a period of heightened “anger.”

“It’s really impacting the trust that people have in if our country can function and if our county can feel like the people who are elected officials are trustworthy,” she said.

Elected officials need to take the time to “understand why there’s anger” and why people feel like they have not been heard or met in the moment.

“My biggest concern and my biggest priority in Congress is to find ways to reestablish that trust, that trust with the American people, that trust on a community level,” she said. “And I don’t think it is a top-down—I think it’s going to be a bottom-up within our communities building back, you know, across our communities and understanding in our elected officials.“

She said she plans to ask her constituents for their views on the issues so that her vote can reflect their thoughts.

“Our world is crazy, but the last thing I’m going to say is I believe that we’re going be OK. It’s going to be choppy, it’s going to be hard, but that we are going to swim through this; but it’s a difficult ride at the moment,” she said.

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