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The government shutdown is over. The wait for data about the economy is not.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday that it will release its jobs report for September on Thursday, breaking the more than six-week data drought that began when federal funding lapsed on Oct. 1.
But economists, policymakers, and investors will need to wait weeks for a more up-to-date picture of the labor market, as well as for fresh data on inflation, spending, home-building, and more. When the data does begin to flow, it may come with an asterisk — some of the reports may be based on partial information, making them subject to more uncertainty than usual.
And some data will probably never be produced, a permanent gap in understanding that could have lasting consequences.
“I just don’t think we’re ever going to know what happened in October, at least not very accurately,” said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University.
The lack of reliable information is a challenge for officials at the Federal Reserve, who were already struggling to interpret conflicting economic signals and were divided about how to respond. Policymakers will almost certainly head into their next meeting, on Dec. 9 and Dec. 10, without much of the data that they would usually use to inform their interest rate decisions.
Financial markets have stumbled in recent days as investors have grown nervous that the central bank won’t lower interest rates next month as expected — in part because policymakers won’t have the data they need to convince them that a cut is prudent.
Fed policymakers aren’t the only ones flying blind. State and local leaders rely on economic data to make budget decisions. Corporate executives rely on it when deciding whether to hire, where to invest, and how to set prices. Investors need it to accurately price government bonds.
Some economists also worry that the shutdown has done longer-term damage to a statistical system already strained by shrinking budgets and staff turnover.
President Trump fired the head of the B.L.S. in August after a disappointing jobs report. The agency is being run on a temporary basis by William Wiatrowski, the deputy commissioner, who is respected inside and outside the government. But roughly a third of senior leadership positions at the bureau are vacant, and it has already cut back some data collection because of staff shortages.
William Beach, who led the Bureau of Labor Statistics during the first Trump administration, said he worried that some agency employees simply would not return after the shutdown.
“You don’t know who’s quit, who’s retired, who’s taken another job,” Mr. Beach said.
Long Delays, Permanent Gaps
Other than the September jobs report, it remains unclear exactly when the data releases will resume, and how long the delays will last. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Census Bureau and other federal statistical agencies are expected to release updated schedules for the delayed reports over the next few days.
The Census Bureau said on Friday that it would release its delayed reports on construction spending and international trade on Nov. 17 and Nov. 19.
The B.L.S. will be able to release the September jobs report quickly because it was originally scheduled to be released on Oct. 3 and was nearly complete when the government shut down. Some other data from September may also be relatively easy to produce.
But figuring out what was happening in the economy during the period of the shutdown itself could be more challenging. To calculate the Consumer Price Index each month, for example, government workers visit hundreds of businesses around the country to check the prices of thousands of individual items. That data is almost impossible to collect after the fact, as government price checkers can’t realistically visit stores and ask how much a bag of flour cost a month earlier.
White House officials in recent weeks have said they didn’t expect the B.L.S. to publish an October price index at all.
October jobs data is also in question. Monthly payroll figures are based on a survey of employers, which, in theory, should still be available; businesses presumably have records of how many employees they have had in a given period.
But to calculate the unemployment rate and other closely watched labor market measures, the government conducts a monthly survey of households, in which it asks detailed questions about people’s activity in a specific week: Were they working? If so, for how many hours? If not, why not? Were they looking for work, or caring for family, or in school? Many people are unlikely to remember weeks later.
“You can’t really ask households detailed questions about their labor market experience six weeks ago,” said Jed Kolko, an economist who oversaw economic statistics at the Commerce Department during the Biden administration.
Even if the government could run the survey late, there are practical considerations. The November employment survey is meant to begin next week. Any delay would jeopardize the next jobs report as well.
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Economists, policymakers, and investors will need to wait weeks for a more up-to-date picture of critical topics like inflation, spending, and the labor market. Credit…Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times
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