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CLIMATEWIRE | Climate change is thinning Arctic sea ice, but contrary to conventional wisdom that’s making shipping through the North American Arctic more difficult.

A study published in Nature looked at Canada’s Northwest Passage over 15 years. It found that the melting of local ice due to global warming enables thicker ice from Greenland to flow into the corridor’s choke points, reducing the length of time when ships can move through the passage.

“First-year ice, that’s retreating. But it means the thick ice — multiyear ice — is then more able to flow down into those areas,” lead author Alison Cook, a researcher at the Scottish Association for Marine Science and the University of Ottawa, said in an interview.

That thicker ice poses hazards for ships, such as damage or sinking if there’s a collision.

The results contradict the common view that the Northwest Passage, the Arctic Ocean waterway linking the Atlantic and Pacific, is an increasingly practical option for commercial shipping. It even surprised Cook.

“I certainly was assuming the season length was becoming longer everywhere, and it just wasn’t,” she said.

Cook and her colleagues looked at historical ice charts of the Northwest Passage and converted those into season lengths. The seasons indicate the number of weeks where medium ice-strength ships can traverse the passage without taking extra safety precautions.

Four regions saw significant changes. In three, the shipping season was shortened by 50 to 70 percent between 2007 and 2021. In one — the eastern Lancaster Sound — the season length grew by 15 percent.

Shipping seasons typically run between 15 and 25 weeks, though it fluctuates heavily between years and regions.

Changing ice has discouraged at least one passenger cruise line from sailing the passage.

Scenic Luxury Cruises and Tours crossed the Northwest Passage in 2022, but “because of the sensitive environment and ever-changing ice conditions and weather conditions of the Arctic, they redeployed their sailings after that season,” said Michelle Abril, vice president of Coyne PR and a spokesperson for Scenic. “They are not currently sailing there or have itineraries set through Q1 2027 to visit that region.”

Despite the shrinking seasons, crossings have — on average — increased over the past decade, according to data provided to POLITICO’s E&E News by the Canadian Coast Guard.

“Over the coming years, the Canadian Coast Guard anticipates an increase in arctic traffic, due to increased tourism, commercial shipping, and adventuring opportunities,” the Coast Guard said in a statement.

While the trends show voyages rising and season lengths decreasing, there are a couple of explanations for that apparent contradiction.

The first is demand. Shipping companies are eyeing alternatives to the narrow and congested Panama Canal. And adventure tourists are eager to trek into the Arctic.

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