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You probably know a lot of sick people right now. Most parts of the U.S. are getting pummeled by respiratory illness, with 7% of all outpatient healthcare visits recorded during the week ending Dec. 30 related to these sicknesses, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Many people are sick with flu, while others have RSV or other routine winter viruses. But COVID-19 is also tearing through the population, thanks largely to the highly contagious JN.1 variant. Just like every year since 2021, this one is starting with a COVID-19 surge—and Americans are getting a good glimpse of what their “new normal” may look like, says Katelyn Jetelina, the epidemiologist who writes the Your Local Epidemiologist newsletter.
“Unfortunately,” she says, “signs are pointing to this [being] the level of disruption and disease we’re going to be faced with in years to come.”
The CDC no longer tracks COVID-19 case counts, which makes it harder than it once was to say exactly how widely the virus is spreading. Monitoring the amount of virus detected in wastewater, while not a perfect proxy for case counts, is probably the best real-time signal currently available—and right now, that signal is a screaming red siren. According to some analyses, wastewater data suggest the current surge is second in size only to the monstrous first wave of Omicron, which peaked in early 2022. By some estimates, more than a million people in the U.S. may be newly infected every single day at the peak of this wave.
Wastewater isn’t the only sign that things are bad. Almost 35,000 people in the U.S. were hospitalized with COVID-19 during the week ending Dec. 30—far fewer than were admitted at the height of the first Omicron wave, but a 20% increase over the prior week in 2023. Deaths tend to lag a few weeks behind hospitalizations, but already, about 1,000 people in the U.S. are dying each week from COVID-19.
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An Elmurst Hospital worker in New York City on Jan. 4, 2024. Anthony Behar/Sipa USA—AP Images
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