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Russia has suspended participation in a deal that let Ukraine ship its grain through its ports on the Black Sea, upending a pact that mitigated a global food crisis. Russia’s exit could again threaten food prices, and food insecurity, worldwide.

Since withdrawing on Monday, Russia has launched strikes against Odesa, one of three critical Black Sea ports that exported Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products under the Black Sea Grain Initiative. On Wednesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense said it would consider any ship bound for Ukraine to potentially be carrying military cargo, suggesting commercial ships could be deemed targets.

The White House said Wednesday it has information indicating that Russia has laid additional sea mines in the approaches toward Ukrainian ports. “We believe that this is rather a coordinated effort to justify any attacks against civilian ships in the Black Sea, and then blame them on Ukraine in what we would consider — and have in the past talked about considering — a false flag operation,” White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Thursday.

This apparent escalation from Russia is another blow to the grain deal brokered less than a year ago by Turkey and the United Nations. Russia had already been substantially obstructing the deal, but quitting it officially will make it even more challenging to export Ukrainian grain. That could destabilize global food prices and jeopardize the most food-insecure countries and populations, which often rely on agricultural exports. Russia’s decision to quit the deal, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said, “will strike a blow to people in need everywhere.” On Wednesday, wheat prices surged to some of the highest levels since the invasion in February 2022.

Indeed, this deal existed to help avert a greater global crisis in food security, of which Russia’s war in Ukraine is just one part. Eliminating Ukrainian supplies may tighten agricultural markets and potentially put more pressure on places experiencing hunger emergencies. The World Food Program (WFP) estimates about 345 million people face high levels of food insecurity in 2023, with about 129,000 people potentially confronting famine in places like Burkina Faso, Mali, Somalia, and South Sudan.

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The Turkish bulk carrier TQ SAMSUN, loaded with Ukrainian agricultural products as part of the Grain Initiative, leaves the Port of Odesa, southern Ukraine, on July 16.Yulii Zozulia/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images

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