James' World 2

Hmmmm … Followers of Christ know the answer!

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The big bang wasn’t a bang in the traditional sense—but it was nonetheless the start of important things: for one, space; another, time. Thirdly, it began the conditions and processes that eventually resulted in us humans, who can sit here and wonder about space and time. The Big Bang was, effectively, the beginning of the universe. According to the logic of human brains, it seems like there must have been something before the Big Bang, even if “before” is the wrong word because there was no time until after.

The good news for us is that physicists do have ways of thinking about—and even empirically studying—the origins of the origin of the universe. Counterintuitive and impossible as it may seem, cosmologists are even making progress in determining which wild ideas might peel back the veil on that early era, even though it remains inaccessible to telescopes.

For millennia, what happened before and at the beginning of the universe was not a question scientists could even scratch at. Cosmological queries were the dominion of philosophers, says Jenann Ismael—herself a philosopher of physics at Johns Hopkins University. The most fundamental query, of course, is where we come from—a question as popular among philosophers as it is with the rest of us. Other questions, Ismael says, include doozies such as “What are space and time? Does time have a beginning? Does space have boundaries?”

Even after cosmology became a hard science, the field was a bit sketchy, Ismael says. “The science was one-and-a-half facts,” she adds. The sentiment, she says, is usually attributed to physicist James Jeans. But that has changed in the past century or so as the philosophers’ musings have wandered into the realm of theory, experiment, and data. “These old conceptual questions are arising in ways that have new angles, a new spin, and a new framework,” Ismael continues.

It’s unclear whether science as a discipline—and scientists as people—will ever be able to answer some questions definitively. After all, no one can “see” before the Big Bang, and no one will ever be able to—at least not directly. But the current and future universe, researchers are learning, may contain clues about the distant past.

And as scientists push the boundaries of what can be known, they are testing their theories about the before before—the only way to get closer to potential truth. “I’m happy to listen to any framework, but I only start taking it seriously when it produces a clean observational target that a real instrument can go after,” says Brian Keating, a cosmologist at the University of California, San Diego. “If there isn’t a discriminant you can measure, you’re doing metaphysics with equations.”

Here are three ideas that he and other scientists take seriously about the cosmos’s ultimate origins.

The No-Boundary Proposal

Quantum mechanics is the physics of the extremely small, ruled by statistics and uncertainty. It’s also what may have shaped the early universe. To understand the quantum cosmos, scientists calculate the probability of a given output from a certain input.

In cosmology, the “output” is the universe as it looks today. “The question is: What should the input be?” says Jean-Luc Lehners, former head of the Theoretical Cosmology group at the Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics (Albert Einstein Institute) in Germany.

Physicists can break up the problem into chunks of outputs and inputs. If they consider the modern universe to be the output, they can try to figure out what input might have produced it. Then they can step backward by taking that input as a new output and determine what conditions earlier in the universe might have produced that state, and so on. They can theoretically (if they have a lot of time on their hands) do that forever, going in steps to reach the before before—and even before that.

That infinite regression, however, didn’t make sense to physicists Stephen Hawking and James Hartle, who worked on the question together in the 1980s. They decided to eliminate the universe’s ultimate input—its “beginning.” Instead, they formed a model of the universe called the no-boundary proposal. They suggested time and space form a closed, rounded surface: a four-dimensional hemisphere of spacetime.

Does that not make sense? Try this: imagine the universe like the globe of Earth. The big bang is the North Pole. There is no “before” it, just as there is no north of north. Before becomes irrelevant as a concept. “It’s almost like a Zen idea,” Lehners says. And it’s one he’s toying with in calculations to see if he can re-create the universe we see today from a round place with no north of north.

“The no-boundary proposal has a decent amount of support, or at least interest, within the physics community,” says Sean Carroll, a professor of natural philosophy at Johns Hopkins University. He notes that some scientists worry about how well-defined the idea is, but he finds it to be a “natural starting point,” given what we know about quantum gravity.

A Bouncing, Cyclic Cosmos

Paul Steinhardt, a physicist at Princeton University, has another idea about what happened before the universe as we know it began. It stands in opposition to an idea that he helped shape: this concept suggests that, after the Big Bang, spacetime expanded very quickly for a very short period of time called inflation. The inflation scenario is meant to explain why the universe looks flat and similar in every place our telescopes can look.

After helping to establish inflation theory, however, Steinhardt started doubt the idea—in part because it has required constant tweaking to keep it consistent with our measurements of the cosmos. “It’s really hard to think of a historical example where that actually led to what turns out to be the right answer,” Steinhardt says. “Almost always, that’s a sign that the Titanic is sinking.”

Time to get in a lifeboat, he thought. So he came up with a cyclic universe: one that balloons significantly in size, as ours seems to be doing now, then shrinks a little and then starts expanding all over again. “When people think about contracting universes, they’re usually thinking about things coming to a crunch,” Steinhardt says—the cosmos collapsing back down into an infinitesimally small point. That’s not what Steinhardt is talking about: he thinks the universe perhaps contracts slowly—to a smaller fraction of its size but not to nothing. That shrinking smooths things out in ways inflation fails to explain, he says, while still producing a cosmos that appears flat and the same in all directions.

Steinhardt adds that what looks like a big bang is actually not: the universe expands, then slowly contracts, and then quickly goes back to expanding. The fast transition between contraction and expansion is not a bang but a “big bounce.”

teinhardt hopes to test this idea not just by examining the past but also by taking data from the present and watching the future carefully. “It makes an obvious prediction, which is that the current phase of accelerated expansion can’t continue forever,” Steinhardt says. “It must end.” This idea, in turn, raises a new question: “Could it already be in the process of ending now?” he asks.

Our measurements about how the universe is expanding come from relatively faraway objects that emitted their light a long time ago. Things could have changed, and we might not know yet because the effects would be hard to measure. “We’d have to look at objects very close by in order to detect it,” Steinhardt says. That’s not cosmologists’ forte, and they would have to develop new techniques and instruments to look nearby for such effects.

Even more intriguingly, Steinhardt says that because “nothing bad happens to space” during the contraction and bounce, information—even objects such as black holes—can pass from before the bounce to after. “There might be things in our observable universe which are from before,” he says. Keep an eye out.

Mirror Universe

Another big idea about the before before is of interest to Latham Boyle, a researcher at the Higgs Center for Theoretical Physics at the University of Edinburgh, who was formerly Steinhardt’s graduate student. Like the big bounce concept, Boyle’s favored proposal is pretty simple conceptually—and it similarly eschews inflation. “There’s the universe after the big bang and the universe before the big bang,” he says, “and they’re kind of mirror copies of one another.”

Picture this, Boyle says, like the points of two ice cream cones touching each other, with their contact representing the Big Bang. “Time marches away from the big bang in both directions,” he says. On our side, it goes forward; on the mirror side, it goes backward. What happened before the Big Bang is the reflected opposite of what happened after. And that doesn’t just include time: here, there is matter; there, there is antimatter. Here, left is left; there, left is right.

Boyle has ideas for observations that could support (or nullify) his theory, which is called the CPT-symmetric (charge-parity-time-symmetric) universe. For one, a CPT-symmetric universe wouldn’t have sent gravitational waves shimmering through space from the beginning of the universe, as classical cosmology theories predict. Astronomers have been hunting for such signals. If these waves are eventually detected, that would rule this idea out.

Boyle’s hypothesis also predicts that dark matter could be explained by a particular kind of neutrino. He hopes cosmological instruments will reveal more information about neutrinos soon. The model’s connection to particle physics, among other aspects, makes this idea intriguing, Carroll says.

“What I like here is the economy,” Keating says, “and the fact that it sticks its neck out,” focusing on the kinds of specific, physical predictions experimentalists like him need.

The Test of Time

Each of these scientists is attached to their own idea. But Lehners, interviewed late last year, isn’t confident any of them will stand the test of time—whatever time is. “I think it’s completely preposterous that, in the year 2025, we should understand the beginning of the universe,” he says. “Why not in the year 2,000,025 or whatever?”

nd even if researchers think they are getting close, they could be approaching a false summit: that frustrating place that looks, when you’re hiking, like the top of the mountain but is actually a mere bump blocking your view of the true peak—or your view of what you think is the true peak but is, in fact, just another bump. “In general, I think that it’s extremely plausible that there was something before the big bang,” Carroll says, “but it’s also very plausible that the big bang was truly the beginning. There’s too much we’re just unsure about, and I am a bit skeptical that the state of the art is good enough to allow us to draw any firm experimental or observational conclusions out of any of these models.”

But cosmologists aren’t studying the ultimate origins because they think the mystery will be resolved in their lifetime. Lehner imagines himself as part of an intergenerational project helping humanity trek closer and closer to a truth we may never find.

Studying such a physically and philosophically inaccessible topic is fundamentally different from other types of science—those quests at least exist in our plane of space and time. It almost seems like the question isn’t actually within the realm of science. But science often involves probing things we cannot access, at least at the start, philosopher of physics Ismael says. Scientists predicted atoms before we could see them, and black holes and dark matter still lie beyond our ability to detect directly—yet investigating them is clearly scientific. “I think the benchmark for what counts as science has moved,” she says. And it will continue to—including, perhaps, backward to the before that may not be a before.

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With the Milano Cortina Olympics officially under way, it’s time to spend the next two weeks becoming ridiculously obsessed with a group of elite winter athletes. Oh, but there are so many sports and so many cuties, and your boss says it’s “unprofessional” to have Peacock streaming on your second monitor all day? I’ve got you. Here, all the stars, moments, and cafeteria dispatches you should know about from the Winter Olympics.

Tomàs-Llorenç Guarino Sabaté

There was a point last week when it looked like Guarino Sabaté wasn’t going to be allowed to perform his Minions-inspired short program. However, if enough people get upset about something, suddenly a “copyright-clearance issue” can disappear. Thankfully for all of us, Guarino Sabaté took to the ice in his full Minions regalia and had a blast doing it.

Sturla Holm Lægreid

Men will really air out your business on the world stage instead of going to therapy! After winning a bronze medal, Norwegian biathlete Sturla Holm Lægreid told the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation that he cheated on his girlfriend three months ago and came clean just before the Games. “I told her a week ago. And it’s been the worst week of my life,” Lægreid said. The athlete admitted that she dumped him (good for her) and that he hoped “committing social suicide” by coming clean on TV “might show her how much I love her.” I hope he has a backup plan.

Team USA’s first gold medal at the Games came from downhill skier Breezy Johnson. Unfortunately, it broke almost immediately. Following her podium ceremony, Johnson’s medal became disconnected from its ribbon and broke into three pieces. This may be something for the International Olympic Committee to look into — Alysa Liu’s gold medal also broke almost immediately. Hopefully, they have hot-glue guns in Italy.

The Curling Baby!

Switzerland’s mixed-doubles curling team is a married couple: Briar Schwaller-Hürlimann and Yannick Schwaller. That is already cute, but they brought their 18-month-old, River, to the Olympics as well. To make matters even cuter, the kid clearly has a knack for his parents’ sport. A not-insignificant chunk of NBC’s curling coverage was focused on River, who already handles the broom like a pro.

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Photo-Illustration: by The Cut; Photos: Getty Images

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The former chief described his conversation with Mr. Trump to the F.B.I. in October 2019, two months after Mr. Epstein was found dead in his jail cell while awaiting trial on federal sex trafficking charges, the memo shows. Mr. Reiter told The Miami Herald, which reported on the document earlier, that the call with Mr. Trump occurred in July 2006.

The account highlights the shifting explanations Mr. Trump has given about what he knew — and didn’t know — about Mr. Epstein and Ms. Maxwell. He has denied knowledge of Mr. Epstein abusing underage girls, but also said last year that the financier “stole” young women who worked at his Mar-a-Lago club. The White House has said Mr. Trump barred Mr. Epstein from the club “for being a creep.”

After Ms. Maxwell was arrested, Mr. Trump did not raise any concerns about her behavior. “I just wish her well, frankly,” Mr. Trump said of Ms. Maxwell in 2020. “I’ve met her numerous times over the years, especially since I lived in Palm Beach.”

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said she could not confirm the call had taken place but that, if it had, it would corroborate Mr. Trump’s statements that he had kicked Mr. Epstein out of Mar-a-Lago.

She said the phone call “may or may not have happened in 2006 — I don’t know the answer to that question.”

“What I’m telling you is that what President Trump has always said is that he kicked Jeffrey Epstein out of his Mar-a-Lago club, because Jeffrey Epstein was a creep,” she added. “And that remains true, and this call, if it did happen, corroborates exactly what President Trump has said from the beginning.”

In the F.B.I.’s written account of the interview with Mr. Reiter, Mr. Trump is depicted as someone eager to relay to the police his concerns about Mr. Epstein’s conduct.

But in July 2019, shortly after Mr. Epstein’s arrest, Mr. Trump was asked by reporters if he had “any suspicions” that Mr. Epstein “was molesting young women, underaged women.”

“No, I had no idea. I had no idea,” Mr. Trump said at the time. “I haven’t spoken to him in many, many years. But I had — I didn’t have no idea.”

The White House on Tuesday referred questions about Mr. Reiter’s account to the Justice Department. The Justice Department, in a statement, said it had not corroborated the chief’s recollection of the conversation: “We are not aware of any corroborating evidence that the president contacted law enforcement 20 years ago.”

Mr. Reiter declined to comment.

Speaker Mike Johnson last year described Mr. Trump as an “informant” against Mr. Epstein. Mr. Johnson later clarified his remarks, saying he was not sure he used the right word, but that “President Trump was never a hindrance to the Epstein investigation. He was trying to assist in that.”

Mr. Trump has said that he “didn’t know” why Mr. Epstein was recruiting employees from Mar-a-Lago, but claimed that he threw him out of the club amid a dispute over stealing spa workers.

But other documents in the Epstein files appear to undercut that account, according to Representative Jamie Raskin, Democrat of Maryland, who reviewed unredacted portions of the documents this week.

“Epstein’s lawyers synopsized and quoted Trump as saying that Jeffrey Epstein was not a member of his club at Mar-a-Lago, but he was a guest at Mar-a-Lago, and he had never been asked to leave,” Mr. Raskin said.

“It seems to be at odds with some things that President Trump has been saying recently about how he had kicked Jeffrey Epstein out of the club,” he added.

Revelations about Mr. Trump’s connections to Mr. Epstein have been a constant source of headache for the White House as it has tried to distance the president from the notorious sex offender.

Mr. Trump was friendly for at least 15 years with Mr. Epstein, and they were repeatedly spotted together at parties. But Mr. Trump has frequently tried to downplay their relationship.

Mr. Trump has said that the men broke off contact years ago, though there have been several explanations for the falling out.

In 2002, Mr. Trump told New York magazine, “I’ve known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side.”

But two years after Mr. Trump called Mr. Epstein a “terrific guy,” the two men became rivals over an oceanfront Palm Beach mansion that had fallen into foreclosure.

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The former police chief’s account highlights the inconsistent statements President Trump has made over the years about his relationship with both Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. Credit…Kenny Holston/The New York Times

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The latest bout of brutally cold weather that has beset the eastern U.S. for weeks sent wind chills into the negative teens and 20s Fahrenheit (negative mid-20s to negative low 30s Celsius) in the U.S. Northeast over the weekend. Meanwhile, out West, winter has brought record-breaking warmth that is more suited for spring and even summer. “I’m sitting here in a T-shirt in early February, a mile high in Colorado,” says climate scientist Daniel Swain of the California Institute for Water Resources.

This stark disparity is the product of a persistent atmospheric pattern. That pattern is about to break, however, and the weather fortunes of the two halves of the country are set to switch.

To explain what’s happening, let’s review a favorite winter weather bugaboo: the polar vortex. The vortex is like a circular rushing river of wind that corrals the bitterest cold air up in the Arctic. When the vortex weakens, that tight circle becomes wavier, akin to how a slow-moving river tends to meander in bends across the landscape, Swain says.

Where the vortex bends southward, cold air follows. And if it bends southward in one spot, it must bend northward in adjacent areas. In this case, the northward bend is happening over the western U.S., where it has pulled up warmer air.

Those bends tend to be set up in ways that reinforce background conditions related to Earth’s geography, Swain says. In the case of the U.S., the location of the Rockies, as well as the boundary between the Pacific Ocean and the land, means that, on average, a weak ridge (a northward bend in the jet stream) forms over the West and a weak trough (a southward bend) establishes over the East. The present dichotomy “is an amplification of that background pattern—a dramatic one,” Swain says.

The rapid warming of the Arctic may be making such weakening of the polar vortex more common, but researchers aren’t yet sure. “To the extent that it’s doing so, it hasn’t been enough to overcome the fact that that source of bitterly cold air isn’t as bitterly cold as it used to be,” Swain says.

This effect bears on the current situation. For the period of December 2025 to January 2026, no part of the contiguous U.S. had record cold. But 21 percent of the country had the warmest such period since 1940, according to climatologist Brian Brettschneider.

And as winters get warmer overall, these bouts of bitter cold become more disruptive because they are so unusual. People are less acclimated to freezing weather, and businesses may not make contingency plans. “For someone who is 25 or 30 years old, they may have had the coldest week in their life,” Swain says, whereas, for those out West, “it’s been the warmest winter regardless of age.”

Though the consequences of the cold have been widespread and acute—with travel disruptions, power outages, and scores of deaths—the warm western winter will also take a toll. Its consequences, however, will be delayed, with the potential for drought, water shortages, and a higher risk of wildfires in the coming months.

The upcoming weather switch up likely comes down to a subtle atmospheric shift. Understanding the details would take a dedicated study to unpack all the influences, Swain says, but it could be a change in where storms in the tropical Pacific are occurring, which can knock things around in the atmosphere like dominoes. Whatever the cause, temperatures will rise to more seasonable levels in the eastern U.S., and cooler, wetter weather will come to the West. Any rain or snow will be welcome, Swain says, but will be unlikely to erase the current deficit.

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