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With the critical Iowa caucuses just a week away and polls showing Democratic presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton neck-and-neck, geography may play a bigger role than turnout in favoring Clinton.
Sanders is hoping to repeat the 2008 playbook of energizing young people and first-time caucus-goers that led Barack Obama to beat Clinton here. It’s working — he’s pulled even with her overall and is leading Clinton by more than 2-to-1 among people under 45, according a Des Moines Register poll, and by nearly 20 percentage points among people who plan to attend their first caucuses.
Where Obama succeeded in changing the fundamental makeup of the electorate, many candidates have failed after making similar promises, including Howard Dean in 2004 and Bill Bradley in 2000. Young people and first-time caucus-goers are just harder to turn out, and many observers believe Sanders’ biggest challenge will be getting his supporters to actually show up.
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Click link below for article:
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/why-geography-favors-hillary-clinton-iowa
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